2300-2400 WALK THROUGH TO FOMC REACTION PART 2
We are entering tail end fractal outcomes. Which means it's the same move but shifted up or down. The drop to 2305 after Wednesday's ADP is not avoidable UNLESS PRICE BREAKS ABOVE 2360 AND HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE WAY until Wednesday morning.
So we are going to have a 40-50 point drop on Wednesday. In order to keep highest route alive, price must stay with yellow hi-light to "STAY HIGH" in order to pad the the low at 2303-07 and get strong reaction on Thursday IN ODER TO to get "escape momentum" by Friday NFP reaction.
If we cannot stay high here to make up for lost ground Sunday night, we get one of the two weaker versions. How weak depends on what happens next 35-40 hours.
So we are going to have a 40-50 point drop on Wednesday. In order to keep highest route alive, price must stay with yellow hi-light to "STAY HIGH" in order to pad the the low at 2303-07 and get strong reaction on Thursday IN ODER TO to get "escape momentum" by Friday NFP reaction.
If we cannot stay high here to make up for lost ground Sunday night, we get one of the two weaker versions. How weak depends on what happens next 35-40 hours.
コメント:
5) there's no more day trading this move
6) I don't have time to handle the daily stuff
7) and still "nail the entry"
6) I don't have time to handle the daily stuff
7) and still "nail the entry"
コメント:
8) MISSED THE BOTTOM SCENARIO:
a) last night I stated in passing that:
a) last night I stated in passing that:
コメント:
>>> at 2:41 AM:
>>> j) this set of trends is really unpredictable right now
>>> k) my impression is that bc "caution is what you go to"
>>> l) we are actually going to "miss the bottom"
>>> j) this set of trends is really unpredictable right now
>>> k) my impression is that bc "caution is what you go to"
>>> l) we are actually going to "miss the bottom"
コメント:
b) bc at the break of support moving for 2300 was the logical scenario
c) bc "caution" is what you go to
d) but here is the route in which you miss the bottom
e) and there''s no warning of it:
c) bc "caution" is what you go to
d) but here is the route in which you miss the bottom
e) and there''s no warning of it:
コメント:
コメント:
f) odds of this move are low
g) BUT HIGHER THAN what had just happened Friday and Monday
h) that's NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN, and it did (the 60-15-55 move) anyway
g) BUT HIGHER THAN what had just happened Friday and Monday
h) that's NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN, and it did (the 60-15-55 move) anyway
コメント:
コメント:
9) so here is with current overall extrapolation:
コメント:
コメント:
10) for chart above, it "DOESN'T WORK"...
11) in the sense that price IS STILL TOO WEAK in this window
12) especially with Sunday night's check down
11) in the sense that price IS STILL TOO WEAK in this window
12) especially with Sunday night's check down
コメント:
13) if you replay last post
14) TODAY'S ACTION HAVE NOT FIXED SUNDAY NIGHT'S WEAKNESS
15) meaning it has NOT MADE UP FOR LOST GROUND
16) and YELLOW ROUTE despite what trend engine says, PROBABLY CAN'T DO IT
17) so what can do it??? ... well this:
14) TODAY'S ACTION HAVE NOT FIXED SUNDAY NIGHT'S WEAKNESS
15) meaning it has NOT MADE UP FOR LOST GROUND
16) and YELLOW ROUTE despite what trend engine says, PROBABLY CAN'T DO IT
17) so what can do it??? ... well this:
コメント:
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18) but this is an "extremely f'ed up move" from position at 2315
19 why?
19 why?
コメント:
20)
コメント:
21) what this means is:
a) if gold bull thesis is true
b) there is not enough momentum for a new high in July as it stands
c) AND THE WEDNESDAY CHECK DOWN IS NOT AVOIDABLE
d) so essentially, we price needs to do red route for "padding"
e) to have "escape momentum"
f) that means low was last night and we missed it
g) that means if red plays, your entry is 100% on Wednesday
h) at roughly 2327
a) if gold bull thesis is true
b) there is not enough momentum for a new high in July as it stands
c) AND THE WEDNESDAY CHECK DOWN IS NOT AVOIDABLE
d) so essentially, we price needs to do red route for "padding"
e) to have "escape momentum"
f) that means low was last night and we missed it
g) that means if red plays, your entry is 100% on Wednesday
h) at roughly 2327
コメント:
22) so we don't have any more "time to F around with day trades"
コメント:
23) the big problem is, I suspect that it has to move even faster to escape
コメント:
24) so Sunday night was a sharp move down where it should have been up
25) and now WE NOT FIXED THAT, we are where we should have been 18 hours ago
26) WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
27) that means that going sideways likek yellow at top ...
28) DOES NOT FIX OUR GAP PROBLEM
29) so it has to be red route that fixes it
30) but I can't forecast it bc IT'S NOT IN THE TREND
25) and now WE NOT FIXED THAT, we are where we should have been 18 hours ago
26) WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
27) that means that going sideways likek yellow at top ...
28) DOES NOT FIX OUR GAP PROBLEM
29) so it has to be red route that fixes it
30) but I can't forecast it bc IT'S NOT IN THE TREND
コメント:
31) think about it this way
32) there's 40-50 point drop that's coming Wednesday
33) TO SURVIVE THAT SITUATION AND STILL HAVE BREAK OUT POSITION...
34) WE NEED TO HIT 2375 TUESDAY NIGHT
36) nothing is going to happen next 20 hours
37) it has to be late NY session tomorrow
38) so tomorrow starting 2 PM ET or NY time
32) there's 40-50 point drop that's coming Wednesday
33) TO SURVIVE THAT SITUATION AND STILL HAVE BREAK OUT POSITION...
34) WE NEED TO HIT 2375 TUESDAY NIGHT
36) nothing is going to happen next 20 hours
37) it has to be late NY session tomorrow
38) so tomorrow starting 2 PM ET or NY time
コメント:
39) is when we SHOULD move 45-75-ish
40) why? because you can't fix a spike down problem with sideways move
41) it has to be 2 spikes, one bulls just did
42) and one tomorrow
40) why? because you can't fix a spike down problem with sideways move
41) it has to be 2 spikes, one bulls just did
42) and one tomorrow
コメント:
43) THE WED ENTRY SHOULD BE 2324-2327
コメント:
@ abonillat, black route odds?
a) price will answer
b) it would HAVE TO COMPLETELY REVERSE THE MOVE UP
c) in 20 hours
a) price will answer
b) it would HAVE TO COMPLETELY REVERSE THE MOVE UP
c) in 20 hours
コメント:
7:46 PM
a) so sideways to mid Tuesday then move for 2377
b) Wed check-down to 2324-27
c) then all the way up
a) so sideways to mid Tuesday then move for 2377
b) Wed check-down to 2324-27
c) then all the way up
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コメント:
d) there's just no way to have caught this one, the way it went down ...
e) the curves have turned enough where red is reasonable
f) it can't start the move up until London but will finish at 2377
h) on Wed morning, then rugpull for ADP
e) the curves have turned enough where red is reasonable
f) it can't start the move up until London but will finish at 2377
h) on Wed morning, then rugpull for ADP
コメント:
THIS POST IS DEAD, LET'S GET TO PART 3:
関連のアイデア
1) so we should know by tomorrow night
2) whether to make the entire entry on Wed
3) 70% of outcomes say we have to buy Wed's low all at once
4) the remaining says 30/70 entry, 30 on Wed and 70 on 612 FOMC