RLinda ! GOLD-> Gold is strengthening. What's next? 1673?

2022年11月4日

The U.S. dollar index is down 0.3%, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while gold is strengthening to 1650. After yesterday's false support breakdown, the price is rallying 2.20%. The market is still digesting the rate hike as well as the NFP ahead.


(Chart 1: DXY 1H chart and XAU 1H chart. Correlation between the dollar index and gold)

• -Futures await NFP data to provide a catalyst for the next move.
  
• -Potential end to the suspension of the Chinese covid flight helped the gold rally.
  
• -Gold continued to rally up to $1650 this morning after bouncing back from yesterday's low of $161616
  
• -The rally coincided with a 0.3% correction in the dollar index as well as markets processing the aftermath of the FOMC meeting
  
• -Nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 200,000
  
• -Market continues to look for positive hints
  

(Chart 2. XAU 4H. Price sandwiched between MA-200 and MA-50) Local bullish trend to range resistance)

The U.S. central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time this week.
Interest rates are likely to remain high, but a slowdown in the pace of hikes could cause the pace of gold price declines to slow

Gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, but high interest rates are reducing the appeal of this non-revenue-generating asset.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell unexpectedly last week. Now all eyes are on U.S. non-farm payrolls data for October, which is due out today.


(Chart 3: XAUUSD 1H. Under price MA-50 and MA-200. Price in consolidation)

Gold continues to trade in a range between 1673-1624. The price makes a false break last night and buyers are pushing the price, breaking the 1642 resistance up and pushing the price into the upper tin of the range.

• -Gold is getting support from the MA-200 and MA-50 on the hourly chart
  
• - Gold heading towards testing range resistance
  
• -After NFP data release, price on higher volatility may test 1673 resistance with a false breakdown
  
• - Price is still in neutral as investors are biding their time, but no action so far
  

I expect that from the level of 1642, the price might continue its recovery to the resistance of 1673.

Regards R.Linda!

2022年11月4日

ノート

The accuracy of competent technical and fundamental analysis)

Price enters the important zone and trades above a key level before the release of the NFS. News volatility and investor uncertainty after the rate hike pushed the Bulls, who escorted the price to 1673.
Friday fulfilled our plans 100%

2022年11月4日

ノート

Gold goes +310 pips in our direction. We get the direction right and win again

What happens on the chart:
1) we see strong upward momentum
2) The bulls are pushing the price even after the NPS data release.
3) Price moves into a buy zone relative to resistance 1673
4) Price breaks through resistance 1673 - a very strong signal for further action

Maybe over the weekend the market will calm down and from the opening session on Monday we might see a pullback to 1660, but we will deal with that on Monday!

2022年11月6日

ノート

We, using the skills of technical and fundamental analysis, were able to analyze and predict the further price movement.
Gold reaches 1673, breaks through the resistance range and heads towards the liquidity zone at 1681.86, the level is not reached and the trading week is closed

Gold is in the 1673-1681 range and in this range the price may start to consolidate until

The resistance level of 1681.86 is ahead. The price closes almost under this level and here we might see either a gap or a break-up in the morning, because the price has not finished its way (presumably)
But we might see a false-break and flip back to 1673.
From 1673, there are also two scenarios possible, either the break-down to 1642, or if the bulls can hold, the gold might rally to 1710, where the next liquidity zone is.