Binary_Forecasting_Service

2320-2450 WALK THROUGH TO FOMC (NOT FOMC REACTION) PART 7

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FX_IDC:XAUUSD   金/米ドル
Why? This is because price has a route - not confirmed - to 2450 ON MONDAY 6/10.

I am going to bed so I can rest up for this run. Because of the developing situation, I am not going to have time for a lot of questions. I am only going to have time to STATE WHAT I SEE. I will not have time to make recommendation on what you should do with that information.
コメント:
6/5, 1:29 AM - Continuing from PART 6:
1) so this will us a perfect wave
2) WHILE IT CAN STILL STALL HERE AND MOVE BACK TO PART 6 ROUTE
3) which is the lighter hi-light above
4) that is now unlikely
5) that means we have A PERFECT WAVE MOVING EARLY
6) so the red hi-light is RAW adjustment
7) after I adjusted for this wave moving early...
8) I realized that that price can hit 2450 AT THAT BOX
9) which is MONDAY 6/10, 2-days ahead of FOMC
コメント:
10) THIS IS THE FASTEST ROUTE TO 2450 YET...
11) that I have drafted in the last month
12) this MAY raise the JULY CEILING PAST 2700
コメント:
13) technically speaking, this move DOES NOT ELIMINATE 2300 for tomorrow night
14) it just makes it UNLIKELY
15) but in the scenario that price STILL HITS 2300 tomorrow night
16) then the adjusted route WOULD STILL BE FASTER THAN PART 6
コメント:
1:55 AM, so it doesn't change the OVERALL PICTURE THAT MUCH...
1) all it does is puts 2430-2450 ahead of FOMC
2) bc of the strong resistance here...
3) making it hear early doesn't do anything
4) it bare moves overall target
5) 5/20 is about 2540-2550
6) and 7/4 doesn't move at all, it is about 2675-2685
7) that's it
コメント:
8) if this moves to 62 like it's saying it wants to
9) this will change tactics FOR LONG TERMERS
10) because it moves 2750 into early August with acceptable 2-way vol
11) what IT DOES FOR THE REST OF US
12) is cap the value at 2650...
コメント:
13) or 2665 because it forces the SHORT TERM TOP to hit 6/26-ish
14 and the you get huge zigzags at the top for 5-6 weeks
コメント:
15) like this:
コメント:
16) ignore the part where there is a second black route under the higher one
17) the actual route up is about in between those two
18) or closer to the higher one
コメント:
2:12 AM I got to sleep, and there's decent resistance at 42 and it dropped like 10
a) there are 6 hours to go until ADP
b) worst case scenario if 42 holds and this goes down...
c) we would still be on PART 6 route again
d) but I have to imagine a stronger one
コメント:
2:16 London just opened so I'm not surprised by the move.
a) but if they want to stop this new route
b) bears got send this to 2320 like NOW ...
c) an hour or two ... at most
d) a sideways move leaves too much time on the clock
コメント:
e) all bulls have to do here is stall for a couple of hours
f) and the LBMA will give up
コメント:
g) here this one's really easy:
コメント:
コメント:
1) there's two trend lines here in black, with a third that is the dashed line
2) price has to stall for two hours to break the top line for a second run to 62
3) BUT PRICE ESTABLISHES A NEW DOWN TREND BEFORE THAT
4) watch that line for clue it gets taken under to 2320 ..
5) what this does.. is cap the next bounce to ADP AT 42...
6) there's not enough time left
7) so then at 42, a move down would guarantee 2300
8) if this wasn't London, bulls should be favored
9) but it is London, so be aware
コメント:
コメント:
コメント:
1) that bold black trend in the middle
2) needs to be taken out on an up trend like blue line
3) turning down under blue line now is A BAD LOOK FOR BULLS
4) bulls need to take out bold black line first
5) otherwise, it will over quick
コメント:
コメント:
3:01, I'm lights out. Will add notes first thing in the morning.
コメント:
コメント:
a) I can't stay up anymore '
b) but that's a bad look'
c) it means 2320 and eventually 2300
d) but the question is how big of a bounce at 2320-ish?
e) this is a big deal, bc this is an ugly look if bulls give up here
コメント:
3:47 AM, really gotta sleep...
a) ok so, bulls are out of time unless they spike hard in 10 minutes or less
b) otherwise, the morning ceiling is now capped at 47.5
c) and probably closer to 45 by morning
d) that's just going to play the lighter hi-light in chart at top
e) PART 6 is going to win this barring some crazy move in 10 minutes
コメント:
f) no.. technically
'h) if price some how just holds 2331 for next 4 hours
i) that move to 62 is still alive
j) but that doesn't mean it's favored
k) it's just not completely dead
コメント:
l) and to be 100% clear, the result is not a bigger move
m) just a faster one and less 2-way vol but overall shorter one
n) bc the floor would be 2315+, and the ceiling would be 2665-ish on 6/26, so 350 in
o) 15 trading days
コメント:
4:55 that move probably dead now
a) to keep it live price need to up 4 points to 37 and hold
b) it's 33.xx right now and those 4 points don't look realistic at
c) 12 hour wave is approaching complete down turn
d) that would set a ceiling at 35-36 for the next 26-27 hours
コメント:
e) so base case is light orange route in chart at top from PART 6
f) means 2300 floor tonight right around midnight
g) so entry long is 20 hours out
コメント:
6:42 AM ... just not surprised any more...
a) so price has stayed at 33 for hours
b) inching up JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP 12 hour wave from turning
c) while so now is about to make a move for 38 to force this wave sideways
d) in the last minute ...
e) keeping route to 55-61 alive
f) meaning it's not obvious right now what happens next
g) but a move past 47 doesn't seem stoppable until 57+
h) KEEPING RED ROUTE IN CHART AT TOP ALIVE
コメント:
i) in my opinion its so late to be trying to do this...
j) with the curves so stacked against turning up
k) man 38 is hard, 42 is even harder
l) 2.5 hours from ADP, maybe a some crazy event move
コメント:
7:00 AM, this is supposed to drop to 25 now...
コメント:
コメント:
1) in almost every other instance
2) this is supposed to move to 2320 AHEAD OF ADP...
3) and yet bulls still pushing to for the "mirror image"
コメント:
4) it's one of those moments that some times produces a swing both directions
5) ex: +15-30 or -15+30, either or
コメント:
コメント:
7:56, bulls surrendering setup finally
a) back to where we were before
b) 2300 still on the table
コメント:
c) the 47+ setup is gone
d) in theory, could still bounce a bit before rug pull
e) 42 seems doable
コメント:
8:17, doesn't seem like bulls have much left
a) if you play chart at top, we are still in that light orange route
b) and that's exactly what it looks like
コメント:
8:48 AM, 40.XX approaching 42,
a) nothing in trend maps say bulls can move past this
b) they should top here and follow orange hi-light down
c) and should resolve in 90 minutes or by 10:15 AM
コメント:
d) but if bulls break 42 then it would be the pattern in the recent chart above
e) where I said it "should" be this
コメント:
f) so almost 44, next levels are 47, 55, 62
g) this is not like earlier where it was at least likely
h) it's doing this even with the setup having ended
i) so watch out for rug pull
コメント:
9:05 AM 2340.xx, next stop 2317...
j) I don't know if price will respect orange pattern of PART 6
k) I just know it's 2317 before NY CLOSE
コメント:
9:21, if bulls make one more high.... (after 45 just now)
a) then odds start favoring 2317 becoming the NEW FLOOR
b) this because of sideways stretch of the move down
c) it puts the low past 6 PM ET
コメント:
d) like this
コメント:
1) it's 9:28 AM and 2342.xx, in chart above, light orange is the hi-light from PART 6
2) also in chart at top
3) in so far, it has hit well
4) but we are starting to enter changing outcome zone
5) where, it doesn't really matter if there's a new high or not
6) it's HOW FAST IS THIS COMING DOWN?
7) and IF IT'S NOT FAST ENOUGH...
8) or too much "sideways stalling"
9) the floor automatically rises to 2317-ish
10 and the Thursday move would be 2355-2360 instead of 2348
11) there's still time, but not a lot
12) bc the first move down is hard drop to 2325-2328
13) but that "rug pull setup" only exists for a a couple of hours
14) MISS THAT .. and LOW IS IN ... new floor
15) and entry tonight would be 2317-ish instead of 2300
コメント:
9:48 AM, 2339.XX need to come down faster
1) bears need to push this to 2325 around 11:00 AM so 72 min
2) this will keep the route open
3) if they stall here and don't make this first move in time
4) it's then we start planning for 2317 floor
コメント:
10:24 AM ODDS STARTING TO REALLY FAVOR "BOTTOM IN"
5) I don't have a new draft
6) but play chart at top
7) IT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS RED ROUTE
8) BUT WILL NOT BE AS WEAK AS LIGHT ORANGE ROUTE
9) that is where we are right now
10) please understand that
コメント:
6/5, 10:40 AM 2350.XX, price is approaching "reemerging with red route"...
a) play chart at top
b) first this is not final
c) as there is 1 STRONG CHECK DOWN LEFT
d) but this window is unlike others before
e) in that being late up, is advantageous for bulls
f) as the "hard turn" is between Wed and Thursday - midnight tonight
g) so being HIGH SO CLOSE TO THE TURN ...
h) results IN A HIGHER FLOOR
i) we have 14 hours left...
j) if this goes any higher
k) the floor starts rising 2420, 25, 30.. so on...
コメント:
l) FWIW, I think bulls want to tag 57
m) so the all the stuff we discussed last 48 hours have come to pass
n) NOW WE BUY THE NEXT CHECK DOWN
コメント:
10:55, floor is rising past 2319.....
1) this doesn't count the forward rise
2) meaning?
3) meaning the floor when it checks should be higher than 2319
4) so?
5) I don't know, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 ... pick one
コメント:
11:02 AM, 2351.XX, so in chart at top ...
1) when I drafted red route
2) I put the 2450 high on 6/11, next Tuesday before fomc
3) but I realized that I "pushed it too far"
4) so it SHOULD'VE BEEN on 6/10 where ??? box is
5) so now that this route is weaker than red route
6) it 2450 tag is either 6/11 or 6/12, 6/13 IF LATE
7) that's where we are
コメント:
11:17, 2353.xx approaching true top:
1) don't have time for new draft
2) just be aware that you are buying tonight's retrace
3) I am thinking it's 2321
4) BUT this move has a "vertical retrace"
5) so depending when it starts
6) there is STILL A CHANCE OF 2316-2319
コメント:
11:44 AM ET, 2357.XX
1) there's your 57
2) it could hit 62, I noted earlier but it's ALREADY OUT OF BOUNDS
3) so up this page I posted this hours ago:
コメント:
4) when I made this chart, I thought the top would be 9-10 AM
5) it's almost 12:00
6) but this move has a "vertical style drop to 2333
7) so it SHOULD BE ON TIME FOR 2316-2323 AROUND MIDNIGHT
コメント:
8) please remember that these notes are in context of the entire trade
9) as I DO NOT VETCH THEM FOR YOU TO DAY TRADE
10) if you do that, THAT'S ON YOU
コメント:
11) the way that it moved late, makes me think that's there's one more drop and top
12) in that case, it would be 61-62 and then vertical drop
コメント:
11:54 AM DROP STARTING I THINK
コメント:
1) USUALLY, and I got to run...
2) usually this type of run, would make it from 2357 to 2331....
3) in 3 hours ...
コメント:
4) or less
5) made 2357 before 11:45
6) and it's 11:58 now
7) pattern over trend calls for 2331-2333
8) by 2:15 PM ET, so another 135 minutes
コメント:
9) but I say USUALLY BECAUSE:
コメント:
a) so in chart above, light orange was WHAT WE WERE ON...
b) before this started moving like RED ROUTE in chart at top
c) but this move is either dropping now like yellow
d) but I am not a 100% bc I am NOT SCANNING for day trades
e) ii it's not yellow ...
f) then it would be like blue
g) in which case price close at or near high in four hours
h) but the retrace makes it to midnight the same place anyway
i) I am really busy rest of the day
j) if nothing changes overall I will get new draft up after midnight
コメント:
6/5, 12:30: WE HAVE NOT STATISTICALLY ELIMINATED 2300 FOR MIDNIGHT
1) I am operating under the assumption that that the move WILL NOT BE FAST ENOUGH
2) to get there before midnight
3) just be aware of that
コメント:
1:09 PM, so in chart above, yellow blue routes to tonight's low
1) it's not blue bc there;s not enough time for the extra curve
2) it's also not yellow bc it hasn't drop yet
3) so between yellow and blue
コメント:
6/5, ALMOST 2PM
1) 2300 ELIMINATED
2) EVERYTHING UNDER 2316 ELIMINATED
3) NEXT LOW UNLIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN 2322
4) YOU MAY HAVE TO SETTLE FOR 2327
5) on tend maps I can't even see 2327 right now
6) so be aware
コメント:
7) what is obvious for tonight's low is 2331
8) that's all that can be "called"
コメント:
@contactabbas1 It's tonight period.
a) tonight is best price you can get
b) while confirming that low is in
c) where as last week, I thought that, but wasn't confident
d) now it's low in
e) tonight, wait near midnight and you probably see 23-27
コメント:
f) I am worried that the pattern has shifted up in a way that I can't see
g) bc this move's supposed to drop like a rock here
h) based on pattern, trend, vol limits
i) and it's not doing that
j) really just doing its own thing since NY open
i) so if it doesn't happen IMMEDIATELY in Tokyo tonight...
k) then you just gotta wait for next check down
l) but with each passing day that level moves up...
m) trend had originally called for spike on Thurs AND Friday...
n) AND right now still calling that which is annoying
o) so where is the retrace?
p just wait it out.
コメント:
2:45 PM 2355 and stalling
a) so I don't see any big weakness now
b) play chart at top
c) right now ... it's saying that it will BE STRONGER vs red route
d) AND MAKE 2400+ box on Monday
e) so next check to 2331 is a buy
f) bc if 24 doesn't hit tonight...
g) the "in theory" low for Thurs is 28...
h) but Thursday after NY OPEN... is a move for 2365-70
i)) and
コメント:
1) Friday is supposed to be strong
2) so is Monday...
3) buy the next check 31, hope for 24, but that's hope
4) not a strategy
コメント:
6/5 3:15 PM 55.71
a) I don't see any weakness THURS FRI SUN OR MON
b) the weakness MUST BE BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW MORNING
c) next 17 hours
d) to be honest, I don't see any weakness until like 10 PM ... or later..
e) so the drop will be late tonight
f) through London open
g) ends before NY open
h) there should be an entry under at or under 2331
コメント:
i) I expect 2425 Monday or Tuesday before FOMC
コメント:
j) we are supposed to get this:
コメント:
k) but it's already 4 hours late....
コメント:
l) there's something not quite right
m) this move almost always comes back to origin
n) but not doing that here, something isn't right
コメント:
o) so this move is supposed to go to 2316 again.
p) I've never seen the exception that off
コメント:
6/5 - I am really sorry guys. It's not going to happen.
a) this move today IS ALL WRONG...
b) it's NOT supposed to be doing this right now
c) I should not be "wondering if it comes down to 2316 by tonight
d) what this means is that I have the rhythm of the move wrong
e) and I've kind thought so last week
f) we are not breaking out
g) if anything this means we are going down
コメント:
h) the second 1-2, or the second zig zag to set up a rally...
i) when it takes this shape IS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RUG PULL TO 2316
j) there's no exception to this rule
コメント:
5:23 PM ET, 6/5, @Ordinary-Human, yes, it was strong. TOO STRONG, and for no apparent reason. That means this:
コメント:
a) I hated the move today bc it was strong BUT NOT AT THE RIGHT TIME
b) and STRONG AT THE WRONG TIME means BEAR TOP COMING...
c) bc the numbers for Monday kept moving up ...
d) ahead of FOMC while the overall chart said, this is too fast for this spot...
e) so what next?
1) some retrace, probably shallow like 2331
2) then move up a couple days
3) and then close with 100 pt rugpull into FOMC
コメント:
THAT BASICALLY KILLS THE GOLD BULL THESIS, SO HERE IS PART 8:

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