RLinda ! GOLD-> Gold is strengthening. Can the bulls lose?

2022年11月7日

The dollar traded lower Monday after Friday's reaction to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) led markets to speculate that the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive.


(Chart 1. Correlation between the performance of the dollar index, 10-year government bonds and the price of gold)

The U.S. dollar index is down 0.4%
The price of 10-year government bonds is in a range. The price is up 1% since the opening of the session
Gold price is up 0.48% since opening

Gold prices have been down since the opening session on Monday, but from the 1666 point the price is forming a bullish momentum that is breaking through local resistance again. Gold is strengthening on the local drop in the dollar.
Investors will now focus on U.S. inflation data due out later this week. The data will likely shed light on the Fed's decision to raise rates at the upcoming December meeting.


(Chart 2 shows market sentiment as price gains support from MA-50)

U.S. inflation data could make or break gold. While the markets are currently in favor of a 50 basis point rate hike, hot inflation data will likely increase the odds of a 75 basis point rate hike and cause the dollar to rise and gold to fall
On the physical front, the World Gold Council said in a note Friday that stable local gold prices, a weak yuan and economic uncertainty supported gold sales in regions such as Beijing and Shanghai in October.


(Chart 3: The 15-minute chart indicates a bullish mood. Local trend, prices above trending MA-50 and MA-500, quick buyback of metal after falling from the opening session)

On Monday, gold prices declined and retreated from a three-week high from the previous session as the U.S. dollar rebounded.
Higher interest rates are increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is currently not generating income. The issue of the hedging instrument is increasingly being questioned


(Chart 4 demonstrates the bullish manifestation in the arena)

The local chart shows in terms of technical analysis the price transition into the long zone after the breakdown of the 1673 level on the retest. The price forms a bullish momentum to 1680 and a pullback back to the previously broken zone is possible.
The bulls are trying to hold their positions and in case of positive circumstances, we might see the price strengthening towards 1700
But if the price goes back to the short zone against the resistance at 1673, you might see a drop towards 1642

Regards R.Linda!

2022年11月7日

ノート

Technical indicators at the moment:
1) The price on the hourly chart shows us a retest of the resistance area after the pullback from the price touch, but the price on the retest cannot renew the local maximum of 1681.74, this formation may indicate a pullback down
2) RSI indicator (hourly) after crossing the lines, the line nidikator entered the range below 70, indicating a bearish mood, the line forms a reversal and gives us a hint of price out of the overbought zone and a possible start of the movement to support
3) MACD (hourly) also gives us a hint of formation of a local bullish trend. MACD line crossing with the signal line as well as histogram moving into the red zone might be, to some extent, a "first bell".
4) Moving averages. MA-50 and MA-200 are moving without any clear trend and tell us about the price movement into a neutral zone. To put it simply, the price is in a sideways range. Such movement can continue for as long as possible, until the price accumulates the necessary amount of energy for further movement in either direction.