Gold very hard decision

Hello everyone this is my gold idea on monthly time frame ..

Few thing to keep in mind ..

Gold broken the down trend .. when gold had a monthly close above red line ..
Gold retested red line which was previous ATH resistance now became support ..
Now gold price is ranging which could form a triangle or a flag ..

Now the question we ask our self .. we could have a cup and handle pattern as show in the chart below

But Will this pattern be valid if we have a breakout because as you can see in the chart ... before in gold we had a clear breakout .. then price crashed ( bull trap )

So my question is are we gonna repeat history or we our cup and handle pattern will be successful I leak toward bullish .. but anything can happen

for any question feel free to ask :)