farzinsabbagh

Gold Holds No Chance

OANDA:XAUUSD   金/米ドル
As the title says I believe the thousand years of gold supremacy will fade soon in couple of decades. because she now has a superior rival that is going to take her down.
As a lot of people believe that bitcoin is a substitute to US dollar I don't believe that's the case and bitcoin can not be an alternative to US dollar and should not actually. if an economy was built on such a limited supply money that economy will not grow this is at least my opinion that gold backed $ world wasn't a better world, remember 1929 great depression?
so gold as an old warrior in the battle field has these options:

1- Fungible
2- Durable
3- Portable
4- Recognizable

Bitcoin on the other hand is:

1- more Fungible because of gold purity problem
2- has as same Durable feature as gold
3- is more more Portable than gold
4- it is deterministically and mathematically Recognizable but gold needs lab work to grade it.

In the chart that you see, it is obvious that in a more broader look bitcoin is sucking money from gold market due to the negative correlation that is not distinguishable by doin linear relationship formulas. see when one is on a ride the other is not moving or moving down. every time bitcoin rides the way up gold plunges and vice versa but bitcoin is upper hand in the quantity of these rise and falls. see:

from jun 2019 to aug 2020

Gold was up 48$
Bitcoin was Down 64%

from aug 2020 to april 2021

Gold was down -18%
Bitcoin was up 420%

from april 2021 to may 2021

Gold was up -13%
Bitcoin was down -42%

don't calculate correlation in the situations that market does not make a move, look at key times.
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