Chart. Fine. Gold.

アップデート済

Gold is in (unsurprisingly) a similar place as BTC, where it has been severely overbought for quite a while, rejected the top of the channel for a retrace, then rejected the mean to try for highs again. Similar to BTC, these moves were driven by the devaluation of the dollar, and the negative US news, which impacted stock markets, and therefore bond yields, and therefore the dollar held support, and gold retraced. Regardless of the fundamentals (which also align) gold is in no position to push much higher unless it is to remain overbought for a longer period of time. It is now far from mean reversion. Any trader knows that this price can rise despite this scenario (an asset can remain overbought for long periods of time before sell-offs) but given that gold has rejected the top of its channel multiple times, and given that it never rested the bottom of the channel and previous lows, gold could use a decent retrace to support further bullish movement, which is what we could be seeing this week. Then again, we did see a sell off earlier this week. Is that enough retracement? Time will tell. As usual, if any fundamentals should change that affect correlated assets, gold's direction could change.

The most likely path for gold now is to test the top of the channel again (2030-ish area) but it will take news or fundamentals to force it much higher. Keep in mind, however, that negative news can also create a sell-off on gold, as in this week, if it negatively impacts stock markets.
Safe buys could be considered after the top of the channel has been broken and rested, given that the asset is not severely overbought. If that succeeds, we could be looking at record highs in the 2070 area.

All of that said, fundamentally, gold should be bullish, unless there is a significant fundamental change in the outlook of DXY. If things continue as they are, the dollar should fall, and gold should rise - but that doesn't mean there isn't supply and demand. A retrace is very possible.

ノート

Everything happened as predicted. Gold broke the top of channel and is now retesting it. Holding above that line confirms the next, more bullish channel.

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As expected, gold was oversold and it finally corrected, failing to hold the momentum, just like BTC and Stocks. Like BTC, gold has never really re-tested lows, so if stocks continue to suffer we could see a large retrace to the bottom of its long-term channel. If stocks recover, obviously gold will rise, but that will be a difficult task considering we are still making lower highs, at the top of a channel, and overbought. Major macroeconomic news is needed to boost gold at this stage, otherwise we are looking at a drop from the new lower high.

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