GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [05 August - 09 August]
アップデート済
This week, the international gold price has continuously increased sharply after opening the week at 2,382 USD/oz due to increasing concerns about the US economic recession and the FED's announcement that it would cut interest rates in September. The gold price climbed to 2,477 USD/oz at one point, but then fell to 2,410 USD/oz and closed at 2,442 USD/oz.
The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises.
The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week.
From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD
Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2505
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2380
The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises.
The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week.
From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD
Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2505
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2380
ノート
The DXY index fell 1.1 points after 1 week, to 103.22 points. This is the lowest level of the index in nearly 5 months.ノート
ノート
The ISM services PMI index increased 2.6 points to 51.4. This index is slightly higher than economists' forecasts. The gain was driven by a recovery in employment, orders and business activity, which showed much of the economy was growing at a modest pace. Reports last week showed a weakening labor market and a decline in the manufacturing sector, raising fears of a recession and suffering global financial markets.ノート
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday (August 5), falling into a sell-off in global markets, due to growing concerns about the state of the economy, although analysts said This will be a temporary adjustment to safe haven assets.ノート
Gold soared to near a record high on Monday, as a crash in global stock markets sent traders rushing into safe-haven assets such as bullion and the yen. Rising expectations of a recession in the United States and interest rate cuts have boosted gold prices amid a falling dollar.ノート
The DXY index is recovering and could open a favorable week for buyers. Many experienced traders took advantage of Monday's decline to take stock and leisurely enjoy the salmon swimming upstream when the US recession clearly wasn't really in the spotlight.ノート
At the end of the trading session on August 6, the spot gold contract fell 0.8% to 2,388.34 USD/oz. Gold prices fell 1.5% in the previous session, mainly due to the global sell-off due to fears that the US would fall into a prolonged recession.ノート
What should the Fed do? The longer we wait, the greater the severity of the crisis: Monetary policy is tightening and will become tighter as price and wage inflation moderate. It needs to reach neutrality.
FOMC members' estimates of the neutral interest rate range from 2.4% to 3.8%, representing a huge gap with the current Fed interest rate - about 5.3%. And if a recession occurs, the Fed will need to adapt and cut interest rates to 3% or lower.
ノート
A Fed rate cut in September has been priced in as 100% likely, and the bank's policymakers are trying to calm markets.
Gold price is below 2,400 USD/oz.
ノート
Central banks have begun easing policy which is still very important, as policy still needs to be quite tight to bring inflation back to target. They are in no rush to enter an easing cycle quickly. For those banks with enough confidence to cut, many criteria were considered, including the dynamics and composition of current inflation, the expected course of future inflation and the effectiveness of policy making in curbing demand.ノート
According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims fell by 17,000 to 233,000 in the week ending August 3. This is supported by lower claims in states such as Michigan, Missouri and Texas. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, increased to 1.88 million in the week ended July 27.ノート
World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Thursday (August 7), despite encountering a series of unfavorable factors. This stability suggests that the recent correction in the precious metals market may have come to an end.ノート
Precious metals continue to have a week of intense fluctuations. During the week, there was a time when the gold price plummeted to only 2,381 USD/ounce and then increased sharply again. Closing the week, the world gold price closed at 2,431 USD/ounce but still decreased by more than a dozen USD per ounce compared to the end of last week.
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