Bitcoin has now broken below a month long support at approx 6880-7000 and is now in the mid 6ks
We are now starting to close multiple 4h candles in the mid 6k's, for the first time in months.
We are below
Looking at the chart, we can see BTC has been in a falling wedge structure on the weekly. We did in fact break up from in the approx 40% pump to above 10k in Oct.
But if we discount that we have been following the pattern nicely, and in fact I predicted the previous wick with it at ~6550. Now I would expect us to squeeze to the end of
this pattern and test roughly 5.8k-6k.
****Long term rambling and waffle of my thoughts on where we could be headed****
Now, this pattern will be forced to break in either direction. Falling wedges are often bullish patterns, but I wouldn't be looking too much for bullish patterns in obvious bearish conditions. The pattern to me is showing fast decrease in resistance, showing growing supply, but bulls still trying along the support, but slowly losing their base. I think if we break down from 5.8k the floor will be broken and further downside is inevitable.
Miners are also expected to keep shutting off their machines as they struggle to become profitable, and with the upcoming halving, mining will become even less profitable for them. So, with some longer term analysis, could we be bound for a continued bear market and a retest of 3k. My thinking for this:
We have now seen a lower high on the monthly, 20k in 2017, and 13.9k in 2019. BTC hasn't done this for a long time and to me this is showing that a possibility of a lower low is possible. Think about it; when we broke from 20k, we retraced all the way to 3k right? This time we made it to 13.9k, so it would make logical sense for us to now drop below 3k. I know this is very basic, but I feel people forget how simple the markets can actually in fact be. I think if 3k does break 800USD is expected. This is a sort of average we have on the monthly, we spent a lot of time ranging between about 500-900usd back in 2015,2016,2017 etc. Remember BTC has only been around 10 years and the price is still so volatile, and we are still trying to find a real price for it, why would it be strange for us to revisit a price we did 3 or 4 years ago? Especially with the bearish conditions and drop from a lower high of 13.9k
We are now starting to close multiple 4h candles in the mid 6k's, for the first time in months.
We are below
-
.618 fib at 7200
Monthly support
most major moving averages including 200dma
Looking at the chart, we can see BTC has been in a falling wedge structure on the weekly. We did in fact break up from in the approx 40% pump to above 10k in Oct.
But if we discount that we have been following the pattern nicely, and in fact I predicted the previous wick with it at ~6550. Now I would expect us to squeeze to the end of
this pattern and test roughly 5.8k-6k.
****Long term rambling and waffle of my thoughts on where we could be headed****
Now, this pattern will be forced to break in either direction. Falling wedges are often bullish patterns, but I wouldn't be looking too much for bullish patterns in obvious bearish conditions. The pattern to me is showing fast decrease in resistance, showing growing supply, but bulls still trying along the support, but slowly losing their base. I think if we break down from 5.8k the floor will be broken and further downside is inevitable.
Miners are also expected to keep shutting off their machines as they struggle to become profitable, and with the upcoming halving, mining will become even less profitable for them. So, with some longer term analysis, could we be bound for a continued bear market and a retest of 3k. My thinking for this:
We have now seen a lower high on the monthly, 20k in 2017, and 13.9k in 2019. BTC hasn't done this for a long time and to me this is showing that a possibility of a lower low is possible. Think about it; when we broke from 20k, we retraced all the way to 3k right? This time we made it to 13.9k, so it would make logical sense for us to now drop below 3k. I know this is very basic, but I feel people forget how simple the markets can actually in fact be. I think if 3k does break 800USD is expected. This is a sort of average we have on the monthly, we spent a lot of time ranging between about 500-900usd back in 2015,2016,2017 etc. Remember BTC has only been around 10 years and the price is still so volatile, and we are still trying to find a real price for it, why would it be strange for us to revisit a price we did 3 or 4 years ago? Especially with the bearish conditions and drop from a lower high of 13.9k