I've been searching for upside target of the current run and read more about Elliot waves theory. It says that most often wave 3 is the most extended with at least a 1.618 extension of wave 1. It also states that corrections in this phase usually don't go beyond a 0.786 retracement, so considering the actual high at 9550 in the actual run, it should not go below 9650.
Drawing a 1.618 extension line of wave 1 from the actual low would bring us at 24000 by end of June. Well, very optimistic, but apparently in the realm of possibilities :D
From the Wikipedia article:
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend . The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
Drawing a 1.618 extension line of wave 1 from the actual low would bring us at 24000 by end of June. Well, very optimistic, but apparently in the realm of possibilities :D
From the Wikipedia article:
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend . The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.
コメント:
Typo in the description: the actual high is 10550, not 9550
