Bitcoin This Week: The quick rise and fall
アップデート済
For Educational Purposes Only. Trade at your own risk!
I had posted this a few days ago but my post was removed, so I am attempting this again because it's important. I apologize if some of the information is now irrelevant.... the market moves fast.
There is a lot going on here. There are a few points I want to explain that correlate to the points on the chart.
1. This is a downtrend from the recent high and the resistance that eventually brought us down to $5850. This is an important resistance level if I am wrong and we break out.
2. This is a wedge formation which tends to be bullish . We've been forming this wedge ever since the $5850 low on August 13. It's been a week since that low. It's important to note this wedge formation is closing and the apex is near. By my calculations, we have approximately 24 to 28 hours until the wedge has closed and typically in most markets, breakouts occur before the end is reached.
3. This is related to the two yellow lines which I have taken based off of the two candles in this zone with the most significant volume. We have not touched these two points since breaking below them. I prefer to use the candle close position when calculating potential resistance. These two levels are: $6711 and $6972. These two prices are important right now.
4. I have created a "short box" which is surrounding these two levels mentioned in point 3.
5. Finally. Fib Retracement. I took the fib retrace from the high to the low and historically, we see a great amount of trading that occurs when the 61.8% is reached. The most important item to note here is the position of the 61.8% which is right in the middle of the short box I have identified.
Now, obviously I could be totally wrong and we may be immediately heading down, which is my overall analysis... we are going down. This is just a thought to squeeze a little more blood out of the impending blood bath.
For the time being, I would call this a no-trade-zone and await further confirmation of market movement.
UPDATE: We broke out coincidentally when Bitmex went offline for one hour. It was pretty comical. We got rejected perfectly from my red zone... although when Bitmex came back online, it was having seizures and spiked all the way up to over 7100. We're in a slow bleed now. Many are awaiting an ETF decision and I have my thoughts on that but I will keep it to myself for now. There's a decent possibility we will return to the median of our consolidation zone which is about 6400. Momentum is decreasing and volume is heading down slightly.
Overall I am still short on BTCUSD but be careful for a fall under 5800. It's going to be epic if we break that support.
I had posted this a few days ago but my post was removed, so I am attempting this again because it's important. I apologize if some of the information is now irrelevant.... the market moves fast.
There is a lot going on here. There are a few points I want to explain that correlate to the points on the chart.
1. This is a downtrend from the recent high and the resistance that eventually brought us down to $5850. This is an important resistance level if I am wrong and we break out.
2. This is a wedge formation which tends to be bullish . We've been forming this wedge ever since the $5850 low on August 13. It's been a week since that low. It's important to note this wedge formation is closing and the apex is near. By my calculations, we have approximately 24 to 28 hours until the wedge has closed and typically in most markets, breakouts occur before the end is reached.
3. This is related to the two yellow lines which I have taken based off of the two candles in this zone with the most significant volume. We have not touched these two points since breaking below them. I prefer to use the candle close position when calculating potential resistance. These two levels are: $6711 and $6972. These two prices are important right now.
4. I have created a "short box" which is surrounding these two levels mentioned in point 3.
5. Finally. Fib Retracement. I took the fib retrace from the high to the low and historically, we see a great amount of trading that occurs when the 61.8% is reached. The most important item to note here is the position of the 61.8% which is right in the middle of the short box I have identified.
Now, obviously I could be totally wrong and we may be immediately heading down, which is my overall analysis... we are going down. This is just a thought to squeeze a little more blood out of the impending blood bath.
For the time being, I would call this a no-trade-zone and await further confirmation of market movement.
UPDATE: We broke out coincidentally when Bitmex went offline for one hour. It was pretty comical. We got rejected perfectly from my red zone... although when Bitmex came back online, it was having seizures and spiked all the way up to over 7100. We're in a slow bleed now. Many are awaiting an ETF decision and I have my thoughts on that but I will keep it to myself for now. There's a decent possibility we will return to the median of our consolidation zone which is about 6400. Momentum is decreasing and volume is heading down slightly.
Overall I am still short on BTCUSD but be careful for a fall under 5800. It's going to be epic if we break that support.
ノート
Epic indeed.
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