What's next for Bitcoin?

Yesterday I wrote about the basis of the bull market, but there are a few more data to refer to:
1, market heat. We look at the panic index CFGI, with a value of 61, in the median, which may not be quite the same as what we feel about prices. If you look at the current rally, many tokens double, the market should be at a high degree of "greed", but we can not come to the same conclusion on this value.

And we have the same feeling in the Chinese area of tradingview, last year at this stage, an article reading in 1000 plus is relatively easy, but now we look at even the home page, 500 plus is good. If you compare the beginning of 2018, not to mention that, at least the Chinese market's participation has declined significantly.
English area because I do not have continuous tracking, so there is no clear number, but feel should be much better than the Chinese area. On the one hand, it shows that the influence of tradingview abroad is huge, on the other hand, it can also feel that from 2018 onwards, the Chinese market shrinks and the international market develops.

2, a large number of derivatives issued. Readers today provided a copy of the binance exchange's launch of "leveraged tokens". We know that the binance exchange began to launch bitcoin perpetual contracts in the second half of last year, and then added a series of derivatives, so much so that joining the contract trading army is inseparable from the overall trend of the market.
Data show that the current market contract volume has exceeded the spot trading volume. What does that mean? To know the quality of a market, trading volume is a standard (we assume that the data is true now), if everyone does not do spot, what does it say? I understand that incremental underfunding is a sign of no new retail entry.
Contract trading, on the one hand, can meet the hedging needs of institutional investors, but also gives institutional traders a greater advantage (they use automated trading robots, they can trade 24 hours a day, but retail investors do not have the ability, so trading is not equal).
In this case, the market is basically a tilted balance, retail will make money more difficult.

But isn't that my focus, focusing on the massive launch of derivatives, is it an innovation? We know that the currency ring is not lack of innovation, earlier Fcoin's "deal is mining", once let him monopolize more than 70% of the market, but in the end how?
I think derivatives themselves are a good complement to the formal financial markets. But the flood of derivatives is a disaster. The main culprit in China's stock market disaster in 2015 is high-frequency trading.
Globally, the problems caused by the heavy use of automated trading robots abound.
And in the digital currency, the "extra-legal place", the abuse of high-frequency trading is the norm. Every waterfall, is not a quantitative program triggering an exchange?
And the so-called exchange "pull line", but also because the exchange's servers can not carry high-frequency trading software at the same time to issue instructions, resulting in paralysis. So a large number of derivatives, on the one hand, the performance of the lack of trading resources, but also for the market to increase the difficulty of trading, brewing more risk.

The above data, just to confirm the authenticity of this bull market. Back to the point, to know that Bitcoin regular "waterfall" is the law, there is no only up and down the market, so I think this "waterfall" may soon come. We've traded more than $2.6 billion in contracts on bitmex, okex, and huobi platforms, compared with less than $1.6 billion in the same period last year, so I think both sides need a battle to show their strength.

But after the waterfall, there may be repeated market, not necessarily directly into the bear market. So don't be taken seriously, the market will not simply repeat historical trends.

Suggestion: Short-term should stop participating in contracts, to avoid the occurrence of high-frequency trading robot signed when the server is paralyzed, trading can not be executed risk, spot long should do a good job of wind control, set stop loss, to avoid unnecessary losses.