BTC MOON? Yes/No?

2018年9月2日

XBTUSD

Want to really see where this ship is headed? At first, I started to doubt if BTC would ever have another bullish run (not really). However, here are just few bullish clues worth mentioning that re-instilled my faith:

1. A ton of accumulation rook place at 6k-6.5k (which pretty much explains all of the boring price action).

2. Very BIG 'whales' have been sighted on both BITMEX and Bitfinex and have been propping up the price at will -- preventing the price from going down into the abyss. If anything, they are really building and maintaining newly established bases with authority -- reminding the general public who's really in charge.

3. A ton of new BTCUSDSHORTS suddenly increased (significantly), once again. (Remember what happened the last time, and the time before that? Well, 3rd time's a charm.)

Okay, so those are just few clues. Now, take a look at the 48HR Heiken Ashi chart above. VERY bullish. So bullish, in fact, it's pretty darn eREKT!

The 48HR chart really helped to clear up the bullish perspective what may be really going on. Keep in mind, we are still in a large falling wedge that has yet to be negated.

Here two bullish scenarios:

1. If we break above 7350, it's likely we will see 7.45-7.5k pretty soon.
2. If not, we may retrace significantly down to 6350-6800. And resume from there -- forming a nice Cup and Handle which will take us further up.

*Not sure these belugas will be so generous :/

That said, I have my finger on the BUY trigger and will participate in the breaking down of all the bear walls along the way if we continue to charge forward.

On the other hand, if we shift bearish and I break below 6k, there's and emergency SELL button that will come in handy.

Disclosure: My original entry on this bull run was 5920. However, I am now on the sideline waiting for the right signals of bullish continuation before I rejoin the charge (and of course, buy the dips).

P.S. When that wedge breaks north, it will really catch a few Bears off guard.


As always...
Take care, and Good Luck.

#tameyourgreed

2018年9月4日

ノート

Howdy! So far, everything seems to be going according to plan. The only real question is, "Are we done rallying upward (for now)?"

As you can see, we already broke through the 7350 resistance level I spoke of earlier, and are now testing the 7450-7500 resistance area above.

Currently, we are also a bit overextend and entering overbought territory on our daily chart. On the other hand, the 48HR chart still looks very bullish.

Keep in mind, 7500 is a very major level of resistance both psychologically and technically, and will not break down very easily.

That said, the current top is 7440 on BITMEX with massive overhead resistance. You can expect many Bears/shorts will be pounding the market at this level with hopes to swing the price downward toward their coveted 5k level. (However, I am not entirely convinced that target will be hit without another major ETF rejection.)

With S. Korea once again entering the market after a ~9-month hiatus, I expect a continued rise in volume. This added volume may very well make it very difficult to drive prices below 6k (although, not impossible).

Here are a couple scenarios:

1. If we break above 7.5k (and that's a big if), there is not much overhead resistance until 7.8-8k. This would be a nice short-squeeze rally and would almost be a perfect level to enter short, since the resistance is clearly defined at this level, and we will need to 'exhale' a bit for long-term health and stability (IMO).

2. If we fail to break above 7.5k, however, there is a good chance we start our descent for our well-needed retracement -- creating a lower high in the process.

From the current 7440-7500 region, the golden retracement level would be roughly at 6.5k (give or take $50). However, if we only retrace back 6.8-7k, there is a very strong chance (IMO) we will attempt to rally back up to test 8k -- leading up to the formation of cup & handle pattern, which should be clearly visible on the daily.

**Either way, I feel 8k will be tested sometime as we remain above 6k. On the other hand, I do not expect a move under 6k anytime soon (simply because everyone expects this happen right away).

Lastly, if we are to dip below 6k, it will likely piggy back off of some FUD news -- acting as catalyst as we approach 6.5k. Such a scenario could send us down to test 6250, and 6000, respectively.

If this were to happen, then I would sooner anticipate a break of 6k, which open the flood gates for capitulation down to 5.5k (and possibly 5k-4.8k respectively).

Ideally, however, a continued rally to 8k would happen before back-peddling to 6k and 5k, respectively. Then again, we may never see 6k again, and go on to break 8k and 10k, which would force many Bears to pull out their Bull costumes by Holloween ;)

Let's see what happens.