The Australian dollar has been mixed against its peers as Australian rate hike expectations scaled back after employment unexpectedly fell in April. The key focus is now on retail sales data for April due Friday – forecast to have slowed to 0.1% on-month from 0.4% previously.
Broadly Australian macro data have come in above expectations since early April, according to the Economic Surprise Index. Hence, upbeat retail sales data could help reverse some of the recent dialing back in rate hike expectations, supporting AUD. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its meeting earlier this month and kept the door open for further tightening as inflation, which is running at 7%, is only expected to return to the top of the central bank’s 2%-3% target by mid-2025.
Broadly Australian macro data have come in above expectations since early April, according to the Economic Surprise Index. Hence, upbeat retail sales data could help reverse some of the recent dialing back in rate hike expectations, supporting AUD. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at its meeting earlier this month and kept the door open for further tightening as inflation, which is running at 7%, is only expected to return to the top of the central bank’s 2%-3% target by mid-2025.
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