$BCH - A conservative outlook to 50 EMA ($220) and beyond
It is quite clear that we had a bottom because of the recent bullish uptrend. Now the question was it THE bottom of 2018 or not. This chart assumes that it is not THE bottom.
Here is the fun part, as per Elliott Waves, the uptrend can be
1) 1-5 waves: We bottomed out and started a fresh new cycle (Super bullish)
2) 3 ABC waves: We had a temp bottom and will have a upswing and then a downswing (short-term bullish)
So in both these cases we go up! To be conservative we are assuming the 2) is playing out. Now any ABC waves that go up usually have 5-3-5 sub-waves. The recent rally was definitely impulsive, which means that either we are done with A wave or almost done with it (I think 1 more wave pending, see 4H chart), so this correction is the B wave (3 sub-waves) and once B is done we should have an impulsive move up for C
I'm assuming that our C wave will retest the 50 Day EMA (orange) which acted as resistance before and will break it to get to a target of $270-320
I'm hoping the correction will be over (if not done already) at 0.618 Fib or above $130+, this is tracked in the 4Hour chart (see linked posts for more details)
Take Care. Stay Safe
Here is the fun part, as per Elliott Waves, the uptrend can be
1) 1-5 waves: We bottomed out and started a fresh new cycle (Super bullish)
2) 3 ABC waves: We had a temp bottom and will have a upswing and then a downswing (short-term bullish)
So in both these cases we go up! To be conservative we are assuming the 2) is playing out. Now any ABC waves that go up usually have 5-3-5 sub-waves. The recent rally was definitely impulsive, which means that either we are done with A wave or almost done with it (I think 1 more wave pending, see 4H chart), so this correction is the B wave (3 sub-waves) and once B is done we should have an impulsive move up for C
I'm assuming that our C wave will retest the 50 Day EMA (orange) which acted as resistance before and will break it to get to a target of $270-320
I'm hoping the correction will be over (if not done already) at 0.618 Fib or above $130+, this is tracked in the 4Hour chart (see linked posts for more details)
Take Care. Stay Safe
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One more 5th wave (blue) down tp 0.618 Fib level@$133
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The C wave appears to be in play. However note that in an ABC, C can stop at A ($230), slightly below or much higher as shown in this chart. So use stop loss
The 50 Day EMA (Orange) will be the first major resistance, crossing and staying above it can give us an opportunity to aim for 100 Day EMA at $319.
We were expecting the 0.618 Fib level to act as support and it did. But the actual 0.618=$136 and we turned around at $140. This shows the value of laddering in instead of waiting for the precise bottom
We also assumed that there can be 5th sub-wave (blue) pending, but it was already done. The confirmation came when we crossed wave1(blue) at $160.
This is the reason it helps to look at higher time frame charts like 4H and 1Day. Our recent posts (4H & 1Day) pointed to being very close to turn around.
Yesterday's movement was violent and it certainly looks like 3 waves (green) are done, I expect a move to $185+ and a correction/consolidation before a final push to 50 Day EMA@$212
I'm guessing $200 will offer resistance. So take profits and play safe
The 50 Day EMA (Orange) will be the first major resistance, crossing and staying above it can give us an opportunity to aim for 100 Day EMA at $319.
We were expecting the 0.618 Fib level to act as support and it did. But the actual 0.618=$136 and we turned around at $140. This shows the value of laddering in instead of waiting for the precise bottom
We also assumed that there can be 5th sub-wave (blue) pending, but it was already done. The confirmation came when we crossed wave1(blue) at $160.
This is the reason it helps to look at higher time frame charts like 4H and 1Day. Our recent posts (4H & 1Day) pointed to being very close to turn around.
Yesterday's movement was violent and it certainly looks like 3 waves (green) are done, I expect a move to $185+ and a correction/consolidation before a final push to 50 Day EMA@$212
I'm guessing $200 will offer resistance. So take profits and play safe
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Update and details in this post
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Overall chart doesn't change much
Tracking details
Tracking details
