BITFINEX:BCHUSD is finally beginning the extension of the 5th primary wave.
Analysis Method: Fibonacci & Elliot Wave
Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).
Weekly Chart:
1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)
3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2
4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)
The Beginning:
Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent
The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.
The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.
There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.
The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal.
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.
A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.
The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.
The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.
The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.
There was a total of 11 corrective sub-waves.
Wave 4: Price Range & Date Range
Wave Retracement:
-50%
-Weak Retrace for Higher Degree Wave 1
-Extending Higher Degree Wave 1?
Fib. Extension (0-3-4)
Primary Wave Sequence (Teal)
S-1: 25.36%
S-2: -17.53%
S-3: 39.25%
S-4: -14.73%
Terminal Wave 5 Target: $730 & $760
See Related for Additional Analysis. Will update.
Cheers,
-AB
Analysis Method: Fibonacci & Elliot Wave
Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).
Weekly Chart:
1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)
3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2
4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days
5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days
6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)
The Beginning:
Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent
The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.
The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.
The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.
There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.
The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal.
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.
A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.
The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.
The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.
The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.
There was a total of 11 corrective sub-waves.
Wave 4: Price Range & Date Range
Wave Retracement:
-Weak Retrace for Higher Degree Wave 1
-Extending Higher Degree Wave 1?
Fib. Extension (0-3-4)
Primary Wave Sequence (Teal)
S-1: 25.36%
S-2: -17.53%
S-3: 39.25%
S-4: -14.73%
Terminal Wave 5 Target: $730 & $760
See Related for Additional Analysis. Will update.
Cheers,
-AB
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Will provide further analysis shortly.
Travel day.
Travel day.
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Extension?
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Lower Degree Sequence.
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LD Sequence
1. Fib. Extension S-1 & S-2
-S-3 traveled beyond 1.618 (Extension)
2. Fib. Extension 0-3-4
-S-5 traveled approx. 1.618 (Extension)
1. Fib. Extension S-1 & S-2
-S-3 traveled beyond 1.618 (Extension)
2. Fib. Extension 0-3-4
-S-5 traveled approx. 1.618 (Extension)
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*S-5 traveled approx.1.382 (Extension)
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Strong Micro-Wave.
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Looks familiar...
Looks familiar...
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Snap up!
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Leading Diagonal
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Hyperbolic Time?
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Sub-Waves are hinting 5th Wave Extension.
Higher Degree 3rd
-S-1 : Normal
-S-3 : Normal
Green Trend line - Extending 5th Trigger
Higher Degree 3rd
-S-1 : Normal
-S-3 : Normal
Green Trend line - Extending 5th Trigger
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Higher Degree 3rd
-S-5 Extended
-S-5 Extended
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Correction Ending...
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Always good to see to the bigger picture...
Always good to see to the bigger picture...
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Do you see how the Higher Degree mocks the Lower Degree?
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Green box = Lower
Teal box = Higher
Teal box = Higher
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Note: Red Arrow Spiral(s) convergence
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Recent sell off is just weak hands...
They will miss the snap higher...
They will miss the snap higher...
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Breakout Alert...
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Shot Calling
Real-Time
Real-Time
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Tiny Sub Sub Wave 1
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Wave A-3
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FLAT
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Note: Reflex (R>L)
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FYI: Wave 1 is usually a sloppy formation
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*Sloppy
*Sloppy
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Caught off sides?
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This is exactly what makes counting waves challenging.
Large Buyers/Sellers create these long candles which sometimes violate Elliot's Rules.
Large Buyers/Sellers create these long candles which sometimes violate Elliot's Rules.
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Exactly why Fibonacci Spirals are important along side wave analysis.
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This move is going to BIG!
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Excited yet?!
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Wave A
Wave B
Wave C
Real-Time
Wave B
Wave C
Real-Time
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Wave 1 Formation:
Note the long candle = Accumulation (Between Fib Time 3 & 5)
If the candle wasn't that long then Elliot's Rule regarding Wave 2 retrace wouldn't have been violated.
VOLUME! The higher the volume the cleaner the formations! Some traders have volume requirements for any given security that they trade (100K, 1M).
*But, Wave principles work regardless of Volume.
Note the long candle = Accumulation (Between Fib Time 3 & 5)
If the candle wasn't that long then Elliot's Rule regarding Wave 2 retrace wouldn't have been violated.
VOLUME! The higher the volume the cleaner the formations! Some traders have volume requirements for any given security that they trade (100K, 1M).
*But, Wave principles work regardless of Volume.
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Cannot stress the importance enough of the correlation of Lower & Higher Degrees!
Key to Wave Analysis.
Key to Wave Analysis.
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Spike/Complex
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T-20 minutes and holding
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T-9 minutes and holding
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T-9 minutes and counting
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Main engine start (T-6.6 seconds)
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Lower Degree Wave:
5th Extended
Higher Degree Wave:
?
5th Extended
Higher Degree Wave:
?
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#SLOWWALKER
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Wave 1 & 2 Complete
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3rd Wave
-S1
-S2
Above
-S1
-S2
Above
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Above:
Breaking above 50...
Breaking above 50...
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Money will start flowing into crypto due to market sell off...
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Wave A - Bottomed in 3 Waves
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Noted in Blue (Only use ABC because there isn't a 123 sequence available)
Noted in Blue (Only use ABC because there isn't a 123 sequence available)
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Lower = Green
Higher = Yellow
Higher = Yellow
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Lower Retrace = .618
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*Lower Retrace = .786
Higher Retrace = .786
Higher Retrace = .786
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T-0
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Reminder: This is a Higher Degree Wave 1 that is extending.
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Wall Street Money Incoming in the next year...
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The longly anticipated move has begun...
Begin acceleration...
Begin acceleration...
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Thesis:
Monetary System Reset...
Fiat cannot survive...
Monetary System Reset...
Fiat cannot survive...
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Careful:
Reminder: Wave 1 is sloppy...
Standing by analysis...
Reminder: Wave 1 is sloppy...
Standing by analysis...
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Next Few Minutes are key...
Next Few Minutes are key...
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Reminder: Complex/Spike
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Heart Dropped for a min...
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Big Money coming in...
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This almost looks like manipulation and a big player knocking down the price.
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Careful shorting here...
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Expecting a spike back up...
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Stop below 435.01
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Money Flowing into crypto stocks...
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BCH has bottomed.
Forming support...
Analysis holds...
Forming support...
Analysis holds...
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Higher Wave 1 Extending
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Strong move coming up...
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Breakout Alert...
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Working through STOPs
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Someone or Group is trying to hold this down...
Just look at the book.
Just look at the book.
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A lot of buying, then blocks of STOPs.
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STOPs being defeated.
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All the same spirals.
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If the price-action doesn’t spike and hold these spirals then it is a failed wave. There should be support here to hold.
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No spike = No good
Staying Course.
Staying Course.
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Daily Needs to spike back...
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Lower
Lower
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Shorts need to start covering
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One last time to test support...
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Another 5-3 Sequence...
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Reminder: Daily Bar should spike all the way back up.
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BOOM?
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Sub-Wave had an Extended 3rd....which should lead the higher degree to spike us up.
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The Sets of 5-3 are STILL continuing...
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Start the Clock...
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15th
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Say Goodbye to the $400-$500 price range...
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Reminder: This is a Leading Diagonal...
Wave 4 CAN VIOLATE Wave 1
Wave 4 CAN VIOLATE Wave 1
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Talk about EXTREME CONSOLIDATION!
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Sub-wave 5-3
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Looks like a very merry Christmas...
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Shorts HAVE to COVER...
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Strong setup
Strong setup
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Apologies for the long delay!!!!!!
I knew we were bottoming but didn’t know exactly when the move higher would be!
I knew we were bottoming but didn’t know exactly when the move higher would be!
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Boom, that’s the move I was talking about!
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Creating a new idea to follow the move.
Cheers,
-AB
Cheers,
-AB
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1.Shockwaves....
2.Analysis....
3. BUY/COVER (6-9 AM EST)
2.Analysis....
3. BUY/COVER (6-9 AM EST)
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トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達
