BitcoinMacro

Bitcoin seasonality

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BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Bitcoin has nearly always closed Q4 in the Green. Only time it didn't was in 2014 where the price initially dumped 28%, then went higher from where Q4 started and then lower fell even lower. All other time it has been positive, but that doesn't mean that Q4 was starting smoothly.

For the first 4 years there was initially a dump and then a pump. Even in 2010 there was a big spike down. The average drop was about 25-30%, with the two exceptions in 2010-2011 were the drops were much bigger. Time wise the 2014 would say that Bitcoin would dump near 4800 on October 22nd.

Important dates as we are overextended in this 'bear market' which has lasted nearly 300days. 17th CBOE futures expiration. 22nd Fractal local bottom. 24th Full moon. 27th CME futures expiration. Bears have about 2 weeks to do something imho. If we go down we are going to go down hard and fast.

Based on this data imho the best thing to do is: buy some Bitcoin now and keep some to buy lower. Don't dump in any case because the market could reverse very quickly. I can't see a scenario where we don't go near 10-11k by the EOY (not higher than that for now).

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