On one hand, my fib uptrend (see related idea) from months ago is holding up surprisingly well, although the fractal has drifted pretty out of sync (I've adjusted it here, but even still).
But, everything else on my chart is pointing at this as another fakeout:
• still stuck in a downward triangle
• at the convergence of 128 and 300 DMA - these could cross, or become heavy resistance
• NVT indicator flashing red
• RSI on daily peeking into overbought territory (on the hourly, even more so)
• consistently low (and decreasing) volume
Neatly, the downward triangle we appear to be stuck in currently terminates around May 2020 - which is when the next halving is expected to occur.
It would make a lot of sense for BTC to make another fake breakout, clear some CME gaps, and then get pummeled down one more time to give the smart money another chance at accumulating before the halving-induced scarcity.
What do you think?
But, everything else on my chart is pointing at this as another fakeout:
• still stuck in a downward triangle
• at the convergence of 128 and 300 DMA - these could cross, or become heavy resistance
• NVT indicator flashing red
• RSI on daily peeking into overbought territory (on the hourly, even more so)
• consistently low (and decreasing) volume
Neatly, the downward triangle we appear to be stuck in currently terminates around May 2020 - which is when the next halving is expected to occur.
It would make a lot of sense for BTC to make another fake breakout, clear some CME gaps, and then get pummeled down one more time to give the smart money another chance at accumulating before the halving-induced scarcity.
What do you think?
