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Bitcoin Update:

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This is an extension of a previous Idea linked below. I've been following BTC closely and updating on major moves. Follow along if you want. So far my analysis has been accurate, but you don't have to take my word for it, just go back and check out my ideas. Of course no forecast is 100% so use your own discretion and trade at your own risk.

Here is how to interpret my charts:
All arrows indicate general direction, and should not be used as targets unless I have explicitly stated a target.
They are color coded based on their respective perspectives. Red=Month, Green=Day, LightBlue=4hour, Darkblue=1hour. These color schemes apply to all other drawings as well. Except Trend lines.

The Horizontal semi-transparent bars indicate supply and demand zones. These are long term dependent price zones and often can be seen extending into future price patterns. Their use is up to your discretion, but if you pay attention you can see prices tends to accumulate and bounce off these areas. I typically use them as swing targets and watch several indicators when prices are around these areas.

The fibonacci levels are drawn solely as additional information (discretional targets, confluence areas). For those who don't understand their use, I recommend learning how to use them as they are extremely helpful in many ways. The .618 and -.270 are two of the most important levels, though other levels should NOT be ignored. If you pay attention and watch closely, prices move off every level of a fiboacci.

The purple lines indicate trendlines and consequently form the patterns we look for. These are important for entry signals and exits. They form the basis of my approach to trading and are not arbitrarily drawn.

Sometimes I will reveal my indicators. I mainly use 2 custom indicators. MACD and Stochastic + RSI. If you don't know how to use these, I suggest you read up on them. Most retail traders use these subjectively, but with a correct approach you can achieve an objective analysis. Which is desirable for any serious trader.

Another indicator you will see is Volume, this is a must for any serious crypto trader. Learn how to read and understand volume and your trading will become better.

Sometimes you will see red vertical lines on my charts. These are often placed with Green notes which when hovered over will indicate important dates and a brief description.

Hopefully, that helps some people.
Here is the chart we are watching.

I am thinking we will see a retraction of price here down to my long term downside target around 4400-5100 range. It's possible that price may break above the countertrend line and hang around until the end of July before collapsing so be careful. I have seen this happen time and time again. Just remember that the big players use the futures market to hedge their bets. So normally around the last Friday of the month these players make new bets and take profits on last months bets. Two things occur at the end of every month. A trend shift or a trend continuation.

Godspeed

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So the thing I said to be careful of happened. Price has broke above the counter trend with the usual unexpected behavior that BTC has. However, the month is not up yet and we should be very careful until then.

The volume on this move is good and a counter trend line break can easily spark investor panic buying so I will sit back and wait a week to see how this plays out. I am playing the long game with BTC and am looking to add more to my positions around 5k. If we don't go there I'm not worried.

If you like playing with the swings and know how to manage risk, you can try and grab BTC on a trendline pullback and take a quick ride to 9k. From here on out I will be paying close attention to the volume as this move continues to develop. I am still keen on 4400-5100 area by November. But I will reassess at the beginning of August.

Here's a chart of the recent developments and my continued outlook.

Notice the white boxes. The one on the left highlights the move in April. I redrew the old trend line to show that even then we had a counter trend line break. It may or may not be a coincidence, but we had a high volume move on the same days marked by the white vertical lines. I transposed Aprils move onto our most recent move. The result shows ghost price bars going directly to my downside target.

All in all enough time has elapsed and the BTC correction is nearing an end, whether it be now or in November remains to be seen. 2019 will be an unforgettable year for BTC and I am projecting upwards of 140k by 2020!

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And this is precisely why we wait until the end of the month.
Follow the big money.

Anticipating a weak bounce off of the trend line, if anything, and then further downside continuation until September.

Get those buy orders set and start accumulating your bitcoins anywhere around 5100-4400. Id recommend setting a spread between that range. Two things can happen when we reach those levels.
1) Bitcoin liquidity will be low and big money will bid the price back up very quickly .
2) Bitcoin liquidity will be low, but big money will accumulate slowly and price will move sideways then back up.

I'm anticipating the 1st event, hence why Ive been saying to set buy limits at that range for several months now.

ノート

Also for our fundamental analysts.
This is THE reason why bitcoin just made its recent move.
bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/183hmJGRuTEi2YDCWy5iozY8rZtFwVgahM

If your not entirely familiar with blockchain, let me explain.
As you should know, every transaction on the the bitcoin blockchain is made public the moment it gets initiated. This unique feature allows anyone with a computer and some know how to view the ledger. Bitcoin.info has done all the hard work of visualizing this ledger for us in many different formats.

The link above was taken from the bitcoin.info's bitcoin rich-list, which shows the top 100 richest bitcoin wallets. This particular address is the #6 richest bitcoin address as of July 1, 2018. When you look at this account, you can see all the transactions in and out of this address. So far there is only one IN(deposit) and it was on July 1, 2018 for an amount of 85,947.12 BTC purchased at roughly $6,371 for an estimated $547,612,709.

It doesn't take a genius to look at the price of bitcoin on July 1, 2018 and see what happened. And because this is a private wallet address, this bitcoin was likely purchased somewhere else on a previous date probably around June 29-30 before it was transferred to safe storage. I imagine they bought those 85,947 bitcoins for an even $500,000,000 at a price of at least $5,817. Though, looking at the low on June 30 coinmarketcap.com says btc reached $5,835. coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20180504&end=20180804

Of course, they could have spent more than 500M or perhaps more likely, coinmarketcap info doesn't represent the exchange this buyer used, assuming they even used an exchange. If you're really curious you can just go follow the transaction paths of that address and see where it came from.

At any rate, speculating on the who, what, where, when, and how on historical events like this is a whole other topic, but nonetheless I thought it was interesting.

In the past, currency trading and fundamental analysis was foolish, but with the blockchain we see new opportunities arise.
For example-- Monitoring the rich list for active changes such as these could alert an investor of a market opportunity. Knowing precisely when and where big players are accumulating can obviously put you on the right side of the market and at the right time!

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"Anticipating a weak bounce off of the trend line, if anything, and then further downside continuation until September. "

Here's a 4 hour update. I'm anticipating price to break the low from the end of June, going just low enough to knock out accumulated stop orders around $5700. It doesn't have to go far. Once stops are hit, price will reverse out of the short term downtrend of August, go sideways for a week or two and then drop very sharply at the end of the month.