BITCOIN Is this correction related to the 2020 Halving?

2019年11月15日

Following the continuation of Bitcoin's November correction (to what is otherwise known as President's pump to $10500) towards my first $8400 target based on the following LMACD cross Sell Signal:

I thought it would be productive to see if the wider +4 month correction (since the $13800 late June Top) is related to the upcoming May 2020 Halving. In doing so, I believe it is useful to examine how BTC traded during the past 2 Halvings (July 2016 and November 2012).

*Halving 1 and 2 compared to pre-Halving 3*
At first glance we see that the price action prior to Halving 1&2 is fairly similar to the current one. That is because Bitcoin's cycles tend to be repeated over time. Essentially we are looking at the price action after the Bear Cycle's bottom into the start (accumulation/ distribution, first rise) of the following Bull Cycle.

*The MA buy zone*
Even though the current Bull Cycle (2019/2020) has had a very aggressive start much more similar to 2012, it also carries many similarities with the 2015/2016 phase. The MA150 and MA200 on the 1W chart clearly designate the buy zone both in 2019/2020 and 2015/2016. For optimal illustration reasons I portray the 2012 cycle not on the 1W chart but on 2D (due to being shorter and more aggressive).

*The 0.786 Fibonacci as the pre-Halving Top*
Common factor on all three occasions is that BTC never exceeded (by a wide margin) the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before each Halving. In 2012 it was slightly below, in 2015/2016 exactly on it and in 2019/2020 so far the June peak was again exactly on the 0.786 spot.

*Where were we in the previous Halving compared to today?*
So that brings us to the hot question. We are roughly 180 days before the May 14th 2020 Halving (Halving 3) so what did the price do at the very same day (H-180days) during the previous two Halvings? This is were we get a mixed sentiment.

In 2015/16 the price was at the start of the consolidation (Triangle) which later found support on the MA150 and rebounded to the 0.786 Fib peak only days before the Halving.

In 2012 the consolidating already took place and in fact on this very day a new rise started that tripled BTC's value to the 0.786 Fib peak before the Halving.

The RSI patterns of the current RSI fractal compared to 2012 are very similar and this may suggest that the 1W RSI today could make a bottom near 33.00 before rising again towards Halving 3. Can this be on the 1W MA150 (roughly $6700 - $7300) just like it happened in 2015/16? It could be. Basically the way I've always seen the current Bull Cycle was a combination of the previous 2. And today's study further adds onto this notion.

I am very interested to see what your take is on that matter so as always present your opinion in the comments section!

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