Bitcoin showing Text book TA Patterns

アップデート済

Pretty amazing to see that clean break of the bull flag on the left. Normally we never get an easy chance to get in a trade when seeing a solid pattern play out like an H&S or a wedge or a flag. With this i mean, we see patterns develop, but the market almost always squeezes up (or down) before the neckline breaks. So forcing us traders to take our position upfront, before the neckline (resistance) line of the pattern breaks. So actually forcing us to take extra risk, gamble a bit even, because usually when waiting for the break, price usually moves super fast that we can not get a good price.

Yesterday at the break of the resistance line of the flag, market gave traders more than enough time to go long at the lows of the breakout as you can see below, more than 10 min even. Think the active traders know exactly what i mean here, because it's never this easy. Even that wedge shape on the left was a bit easy. Did not watch closely here on TV, but think almost every analyst here was at least short term bullish, for at least a bounce up from that wedge. When do we ever see that most analysts are right?

Because it's this easy, I automatically become VERY skeptical. I know the market gives us gifts now and then, but only to take that away again and more. You can call it paranoia or experience :), but in my many years of experience, it's never easy.

Just look at the blue line on the right, i drew it almost a week ago, price is just glued to it. This isn't the first time for me, seen it happen many times before, especially in 2018, but this one is a bit extreme and too precise.

What to do now? As i mentioned many times before, i usually try to have a plan upfront and adjust it slightly when i see some signs that tell me to adjust the plan. Because i do not trust these clean moves, i prefer to just stick to the plan i had past week (read my 2 previous analysis).

In short it was the following:
-Moving like the blue line, so not a fast push to 9200ish, would prob make me bullish. This has happened, but as mentioned, i am a bit skeptical.
-Break of the curved line, assuming it still has value, would also make me bullish. This also happened
-Max drop to 8400, also happened.

You prob thinking, why the F are you skeptical, it all played out perfectly. Well exactly because of that :). My biggest issue might be, the huge drops that many alts have made. Bitcoin Cash has always been one of the strongest alts during the rallies past 2 years. Now when looking at the that chart, the drop we made, looks more like the red circle instead of being in the yellow circle like a year ago.

Also volume on this push up today is not great, but also not bad. So i am going to stick to my 9250ish max. Now the original plan was, when seeing a break of the curved line, push towards like 9200 and then drop, important to see a higher low. Think that max low has to be the green box on the right, so around 8800.

Now even if the mid-term is super bullish, chances are VERY big, to see somekind of retest at some point. So even if this move today would go in a straight line to 9400/500, still a big chance to see a retest between 9100 and 8800. So i think for the bulls who have the FOMO virus, don't think there is a real need for it.

Levels for now: Support level is 9800/750. Resistance around 9200/250 and a second one around 9500 (also resistance of that channel i drew 2 weeks ago). Now if we would see a big push through 9500ish today, than i am completely off with everything i mentioned above. Also about the retest i just mentioned. Otherwise, i don't see the need yet to make big decisions for the coming weeks.

So personally, i was bullish short term and bearish for the mid-term. Short term has happened, mid-term it has followed my bullish scenario so normally i should change to bull now. But hope i made it clear to why i am not ready yet to do that. Maybe you can say i am neutral at the moment. If we see some real signs again, i will try to update. Also keep an eye out for alts, like ETH. If those start to make big rallies all of a sudden, it would be a big sign for the bullish views.

Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)

Previous analysis:

ノート

Things are improving a bit now on the bull side. Had a tiny rejection yesterday, bit more even for ETH, but both got bought up quite easily again. ETH even broke that resistance from past week. BTC also seems to be bumping against the resistance zone, which normally means it will break if they can keep that up a bit longer.

Week ago when i started this analysis, with my bearish view, i expected more like a squeeze up, hang there a bit and then some Bartish move down of like 200/300 points. Things are moving differently, more smoothly.

Most alts are still in the bearish zone, meaning, that up until a certain level, this can all still be judged as a correction. For ETH that level is around 248ish, for Bitcoin think we should use 9500ish. So still a tricky situation, but things are looking a little bit better.

I still hope to see a rejection here, drop towards 8800/8900, like that blue line is showing. Because then it becomes easier to say what the next step will be. Meaning if we see some bottom formation being created there or not.

Another thing i want to mention. During the drop from the 10k's, i would see a 10mil market sell order come in several times. Not in a row, but maybe even a day between them ( i have not been watching closely past weeks). The last one i saw was around 9200 even i think. First ones was in the 10k's. So those orders were leading clearly, since market kept following their direction. Now past 2 days, again i am not watching closely, i saw 2 of those yesterday as well. So i am wondering if they are leading again or not. Just something to keep in mind.

For ETH, red zone should not break anymore.

ノート

A zoom in of the same chart from above. Still looks strong, but think if bitcoin will touch 9100/9080, good chance we will drop to the low side of that bull flag again. So necessarily mean bad news, because it could still just be the second leg of a flag.