The chart is a 12h chart because reasons, so I have doubled the Bollinger Band Lengths to 40, and that means that the baseline of the BB is still the 20 Day SMA. We are using the double bollinger bands, which confines 99.7 of all price action and the 50 EMA equates to the 25 Day EMA. The stepped blue line is the 50w SMA programmed to fit on the chart, while the stepped purple line is the 200w SMA.
First, when you pop out of the 3rd standard deviation Bollinger Band it is a real bad time to hope for more continuation. Now, when I was looking at feeding my short position (because we slipped the 50w and I was hella bearish) I didn't pull up the BB to know I should taking profit, not feeding the bulls with more shorts. So this divergence at BB support ate up a massive amount of my profits. I closed the shorts and made some money going long on a intra-day trade, which I don't usually do as a swing trader. This is personally frustrating because I have been able to see the exact same set of circumstances to very profitable affect in the past, but missed it this time. Bah humbug.
Now the bullish divergence has performed and we see there is a lid onthe RSI around 53.83.
We also see that the price action slammed into the 50 week SMA and immediately wicked to the BB baseline, or 20d SMA, and now the price action is slipping that as well.
The bounce had a lot of volume as it was one of the most high volume events for the last two months. My interpretation? $6,500 confirmed as strong support, but even more importantly, the 50w SMA was confirmed as resistance. The RSI will continue to move mostly below 50 and the BB will continue to move lower and the 25d will continue act as short term resistance and the 50W will punish any more break out attempts.
Finally, the chart below is how I trend-line the price action. The blue trend line has acted both as support and resistance and when it was acting as support you can look back to my linked post and see that I was quite bullish, that this could have been a bump and run type formation with a target near $14,000. My buystops never triggered and the dip passed me by. Now the price action has confirmed the blue line as resistance again, right at the 50w SMA. The scenario I think is most likely at this point in time is the purple trend line will FAIL as support and price action will slipp to the 200W SMA. From there the purple line will be confirmed as resistance and price action will drop straight to hell.
First, when you pop out of the 3rd standard deviation Bollinger Band it is a real bad time to hope for more continuation. Now, when I was looking at feeding my short position (because we slipped the 50w and I was hella bearish) I didn't pull up the BB to know I should taking profit, not feeding the bulls with more shorts. So this divergence at BB support ate up a massive amount of my profits. I closed the shorts and made some money going long on a intra-day trade, which I don't usually do as a swing trader. This is personally frustrating because I have been able to see the exact same set of circumstances to very profitable affect in the past, but missed it this time. Bah humbug.
Now the bullish divergence has performed and we see there is a lid onthe RSI around 53.83.
We also see that the price action slammed into the 50 week SMA and immediately wicked to the BB baseline, or 20d SMA, and now the price action is slipping that as well.
The bounce had a lot of volume as it was one of the most high volume events for the last two months. My interpretation? $6,500 confirmed as strong support, but even more importantly, the 50w SMA was confirmed as resistance. The RSI will continue to move mostly below 50 and the BB will continue to move lower and the 25d will continue act as short term resistance and the 50W will punish any more break out attempts.
Finally, the chart below is how I trend-line the price action. The blue trend line has acted both as support and resistance and when it was acting as support you can look back to my linked post and see that I was quite bullish, that this could have been a bump and run type formation with a target near $14,000. My buystops never triggered and the dip passed me by. Now the price action has confirmed the blue line as resistance again, right at the 50w SMA. The scenario I think is most likely at this point in time is the purple trend line will FAIL as support and price action will slipp to the 200W SMA. From there the purple line will be confirmed as resistance and price action will drop straight to hell.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
