BTC Gold Fractal

2018年3月28日

The 7 year XAUUSD trend presents a freakishly similar fractal pattern to the 4 month BTCUSD bear trend. My prediction is that BTCUSD will follow in XAUUSD footsteps, illustrated by the blue line:

1) BTCUSD touches the current resistance once more (red line)
2) BTCUSD fakes a break of the log support (green line) into 7200 territory
3) BTCUSD bounces and moves up to 12K for the month of April, breaking the 4 month long resistance (red line)

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice

2018年4月5日

ノート

If you take a look at the updated candlesticks, you'll see that the blue line projection of my fractal was off. I matched the fractal to think we were at the bottom of the steep drop you see at the very far right of the last blue box for Gold at that point in BTC, but in fact we were just before that. That does not invalidate the fractal! I just didn't match them up at the right points. In fact, the pattern is still matching up almost exactly! Take a look at the new candlesticks on the BTC chart since my idea was published. As I said, I mistakenly put the candlesticks for BTC ahead of where the fractal actually is. If you look at the two humps to ~7200 and ~7500 that played out after my post, those match up perfectly with the two humps on the Gold chart right after the last blue box. I will be posting a new idea with the correct updated fractals and possible projected path of BTC based purely on the Gold fractal.

Remember, if you try to match every single small candlestick pattern in a fractal, it's not always going to work out on a micro-level, but fractals are about identifying a macro-view of a similar behavior pattern between two things. You first must identify the similar chart patterns, and then you must ask the question: why the two are exhibiting similar patterns? Two assets, commodities or securities may have similar patterns for any number of reasons. Technicals? Overall market sentiment (bear/bull)? Perception of value over time?

In the BTC and Gold case, I think that people are beginning to think of them in the same way--a store of value. Gold declined in value from a top of 1900 in mid-2011 to a low of 1060 in 2016. This is because of confidence in the US Dollar and markets. But now that we are starting to see a loss of confidence in the market and dollar with the deficit building and inflation rising, I think the sentiment is changing back in the favor of store of value places like Gold and a potential new digital gold in BTC.

Thanks for reading and will post new fractal chart shortly!