Shorting Bitcoin into first capitulation from Fibonacci targets

2021年5月2日

Bitcoin is forming another wedge that will likely break down into another domed structure and perhaps a last small impulse upwards will ensue as seen before. Two C wave fib projections are almost identical ($62689, $62869) and look to be a good area to short. I'm already holding a small short but will add a little in this area. Very good chance price will touch these fibs but I doubt price can hold for any considerable length of time and will likely form a wicked candle though the fibs, perhaps on the daily or weekly candle.

Shorting is very aggressive and more patient traders will do well to wait for a bottom. That said I will sell in the first significant capitulation and reassess whether to short again on a bounce. I don't often short, but my study suggests that there may be a long way down and there to be little upside potential. No stop loss - I don't want to get stopped out by a sudden wick.

Not advice.

2021年5月3日

ノート

Fallen out of the wedge already. Upward momentum looking weak.

2021年5月5日

ノート

Price looks to be in an ABC. Fib target for short now $66.5K.

2021年5月10日

ノート

Bitcoin looks very weak and sluggish. No real structure. I'm dollar cost averaging on the short, adding the the position from here.

2021年5月11日

トレード稼働中

2021年5月15日

ノート

Trade going well so far. Bitcoin looks like its flagging and maybe turning down to fall again. Lets see.

2021年5月17日

ノート

Bitcoin on the move and I'll be looking out for a (very) long wicked hammer candle closing on the 4 hour chart. This is my reversal fire alarm and I will be closing my trade immediately upon seeing this - looking to re-enter around 0.618 log fib retracement.

2021年5月19日

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

Staggering out of my shorts here at 31K down to 29 if it gets there. Its been a great trade and it will probably bounce hard soon. Not going to wait for hammer.