Bitcoin Daily Update (day 275)
I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “we appear to be creating a new bear trend and I am feeling skittish [about being long]. Moved my stop to breakeven well before my guidelines suggest.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Bear channel (4h) | Is that a 4h c&h off the bottom of the channel?
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,70 & $3,858 | R: $4,035
BTCUSDSHORTS: After closing outside trend resistance we quickly retracted > 50% and closed back below which is a strong indication of a trap.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0352%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close below + sell signal with 9 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Two candles closed below but 9 is still trending up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K.
Volume: Seems to be more buyers than sellers < $3,800 and more sellers than buyers > $4,000. Another indication that further consolidation is necessary. Look at the weekly selling volume! 2nd only to the selloff on Feb 4th.
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bullish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is very interesting to me, showing thick resistance from $3,900 - $4,000. Makes me wonder if you could make a similar indicator for support to indicate which is thinning out faster. Ex: cloud on top and cloud on bottom. Used for ranging markets, while the traditional cloud is only useful in trending markets.
TD’ Sequential: Daily & weekly r4
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: +1.28%
Bollinger Bands: Last two candles are entirely below the bottom weekly band. Daily MA as coming down fast and may provide resistance before my 33 MA.
Trendline: 4h channel we looked at yesterday is holding as support and so far price is resisting somewhere around the median instead of retesting the top end.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Turning up after price was reluctant to stay below. Was bearish for 2 days and appears to be turning around
Parabolic SAR: $3,586
RSI: Could be finding support at 30. Also could be creating a h&s.
Stochastic: Did a great job yesterday crossing bullish when we selling off.
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bulls: <$3,476 | Trigger day for bears: > $4,430
Summary: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K. I will also be watching the Bollinger Band MA to act as resistance before the 33 MA is able to.
When the price gets choppy after a selloff and works it way towards bearish trending MA’s then high probability positions can usually be found. My guidelines triggered a full short entry with a close below the 4 MA, 9 MA, 33 MA & a bearish crossovers with all of them.
However the stop loss was not favorable and I still think it is two early. I am watching for continued chop and will hope to enter at a better price, better risk ratio or hopefully both.
A good example is the current ADA setup.
Broke down a descending triangle, formed a bear flag / channel as it cleanly retested. Consensio just signaled the same full entry is outlined above in Bitcoins close. Today is also a red 2 that quickly fell below a red 1. It also appears to have broken down a key psychological level of 1,000 sats.
All that being said I could be wrong on both accounts. It impossible to know / control the direction or timing, However it is possible to know and control the pot odds.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: “we appear to be creating a new bear trend and I am feeling skittish [about being long]. Moved my stop to breakeven well before my guidelines suggest.”
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778
Patterns: Bear channel (4h) | Is that a 4h c&h off the bottom of the channel?
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,70 & $3,858 | R: $4,035
BTCUSDSHORTS: After closing outside trend resistance we quickly retracted > 50% and closed back below which is a strong indication of a trap.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0352%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close below + sell signal with 9 MA
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Two candles closed below but 9 is still trending up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down
Overall trend: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K.
Volume: Seems to be more buyers than sellers < $3,800 and more sellers than buyers > $4,000. Another indication that further consolidation is necessary. Look at the weekly selling volume! 2nd only to the selloff on Feb 4th.
FIB’s: Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909
Candlestick analysis: Bullish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is very interesting to me, showing thick resistance from $3,900 - $4,000. Makes me wonder if you could make a similar indicator for support to indicate which is thinning out faster. Ex: cloud on top and cloud on bottom. Used for ranging markets, while the traditional cloud is only useful in trending markets.
TD’ Sequential: Daily & weekly r4
Visible Range: High volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 holding as resistance. Surprised we haven’t fallen through the gap down to $2,977
Price action: 24h: +1.28%
Bollinger Bands: Last two candles are entirely below the bottom weekly band. Daily MA as coming down fast and may provide resistance before my 33 MA.
Trendline: 4h channel we looked at yesterday is holding as support and so far price is resisting somewhere around the median instead of retesting the top end.
Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Turning up after price was reluctant to stay below. Was bearish for 2 days and appears to be turning around
Parabolic SAR: $3,586
RSI: Could be finding support at 30. Also could be creating a h&s.
Stochastic: Did a great job yesterday crossing bullish when we selling off.
Last Day Rule: Trigger day for bulls: <$3,476 | Trigger day for bears: > $4,430
Summary: Yet again the short and medium are having trouble making up their mind while the long is in a serious bear trend. Indicates no trade zone for me and suggests that we will range in a Wyckoff manner for another 1-2 weeks until we retest the 33 MA around 4K. I will also be watching the Bollinger Band MA to act as resistance before the 33 MA is able to.
When the price gets choppy after a selloff and works it way towards bearish trending MA’s then high probability positions can usually be found. My guidelines triggered a full short entry with a close below the 4 MA, 9 MA, 33 MA & a bearish crossovers with all of them.
However the stop loss was not favorable and I still think it is two early. I am watching for continued chop and will hope to enter at a better price, better risk ratio or hopefully both.
A good example is the current ADA setup.
Broke down a descending triangle, formed a bear flag / channel as it cleanly retested. Consensio just signaled the same full entry is outlined above in Bitcoins close. Today is also a red 2 that quickly fell below a red 1. It also appears to have broken down a key psychological level of 1,000 sats.
All that being said I could be wrong on both accounts. It impossible to know / control the direction or timing, However it is possible to know and control the pot odds.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
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