Aug 17

8月18日

Overview:
The cryptocurrency market is currently in a cautious phase. Weekends typically see minimal price swings, though Sunday evenings can bring volatility. Declining open interest suggests a lack of confidence, with traders closing positions and exiting the market. The August 5th liquidations also pushed remaining traders to leave, further reducing market participation. This environment points to continued consolidation, with potential for volatility as the weekend ends.

Looking back at BTC’s weekend price action, similar patterns emerge: a crash, a small rebound, approaching the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA), and then continued decline. Bearish scenarios include January 15-16, 2022; June 5-6, 2022; and more recently, June 29-30, 2024. A bullish argument is found in May 11-12, 2024, when Saturday and Sunday marked the end of the first bull wave and the start of the second in 2024. However, that was 33 days after the downturn began, while we are currently at day 20.

This past week may have been the calm before the storm.

Alts Relative to BTC: No divergences.
Bull Case: Everyone who wanted to sell has likely sold. Now we wait for an event to trigger a buying spree that could draw a 4th wave on the BTC chart.
Bear Case: No bulls come to the rescue, and the market drops further.
Fear and Greed Index: 44.9, rising over the last two days, but given the weekend, it may not carry much weight.
W: Range trading, no divergences.
D: Reached BB MA and is touching it at 59.9k.
4h: Approached 60.2k for the second time but couldn’t break that daily level. We’re also at the top of the Bollinger Bands range, which is relevant for those trading sideways movements. No divergence.
1h: No divergences, but there’s a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Prediction: Most likely move down significantly, or range trade, then decline.

Opportunities:
SOL: Attempting to break the weekly resistance level.
SUI: Bounced from support and is now trending upward.
AR and CRYPTOCAP_OLD:RNDR: Sitting on the weekly level; their next move will be quick, so choose your side.

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