BTC 1 Hr - Trad, EMA, BB, VPSV, CCIOBV
Overall Summary:
Overall the last 24 hours (15th of January) were bearish and I am neutral for the next 24 hrs.
Detailed Summary:
This chart uses 1 hour Traditional Candlestick chart, Volume Profile Visible Ranges, Bollinger Bands, 4 EMAs (9/15/21/55), CCIOBV & ATR.
Traditional candlesticks charts is the most popular charting pattern. It is great for shorter time frame trading, such as day trading, and for identifying exit/entry for longer term trades. The candlestick patterns are determined by the OHLC (Open High Low Close) unlike Heikin Ashi candlesticks with are ‘averaged out’. This means that there is a lot more price action in the chart and traders can enter/exit trend changes earlier than other more trend based charting styles.
During the last day the price has ranged by $150, opening at $3746 and closing at $3644. The price has decreased/consolidated over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. The most important charting pattern during this period was the shooting star that occured at 3:00 and the large bearish engulfing candle that occurred at 22:00.
Exponential Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Exponential Moving Averages on the hourly time frame. The 55 MA is red, the 21 MA is orange, the 15 MA is yellow and the 9 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Exponential Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
Exponential Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Exponential Moving Averages on the hourly time frame. The 55 MA is red, the 21 MA is orange, the 15 MA is yellow and the 9 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish . For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish . It is also important to note that the longer the Exponential Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
During the last day the price is closest to the 9 Moving Average and during this period it has trended around the 55 Moving Average. The 55 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 55 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support area is $3300 and key Resistance areas is $3686. I forecast in the next day that price will not test the next resistance area.
Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands).
During the last day the Bollinger Bands have contracted by $136 from $272 to $136. The decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to decreased price volatility during the day. The wicks broke through the upper band on 0 hourly candles, lower band on 9 hourly candles and stayed within the bands on 15 hourly candles. I forecast in the next day that the Bollinger Bands will consolidate and overall trend is bearish.
Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend.
During this period volume has consolidated in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is below the 20 MA volume line. I forecast in the next day that the volume will consolidate and this will support a consolidation of price.
Volume Profile Session Volume (VPSV) indicator show volume by price as a horizontal histogram for each 24 hour period. This provides additional insight over traditional volume indicators that are only based on time. By clearly seeing what volume occurred at specific price levels, I can more easily identify key areas of S&R. Two key things to identify are the: POC (Point of Control) which is the price level with the highest volume for a specific period, and the VA (Value Area) which is where 70% of the volume occurred. While VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low) are also worth noting.
During the period the VPSV POC was at 3725 and the VA occurred between 3753 and 3704. Overall, the volume profile is bearish and is in convergence with recent price action.
CCIOBV is a custom trend momentum indicator that combines both OBV and CCI. How the chart is generated is difficult to explain in short, but it’s essential indicators of indicators. All I need to look out for is when OBV is green, that tells me the CCI is greater than the ‘threshold’ (the EMA set at 13 by default) and when red the CCI is below the ‘threshold’. This indicator oscillates and the values on the Y axis are arbitrary, just focus on the overall trend and angle of the slope.
During the period the CCIOBV was mainly green/red and it
During this period CCIOBV has decreased below the threshold. The angle of the slope was moderate and the signal is bearish. I forecast in the next day that the CCIOBV will increase above the threshold which is bullish.
The ATR (Average True Range) is a moving average indicator that measures volatility in the market. It is calculated by averaging the price volatility over a given period of time, say a week. ATR is a valuable risk management tool as it provides a clear signal of when markets are turning volatile or consolidating. As a trend trader using leverage, it guides me on setting stop losses and take profits levels while also telling me when to stay out of the market.
During this period the ATR decreased by 3 from 29 to 26. This signals a consolidation in market volatility. I forecast in the next day that the ATR will decrease and this signals a decrease of price action and an consolidation of price.
References:
Candlestick Chart summary - investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp
Moving Average summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp
Support and Resistance summary - investopedia.com/trading/support-and-resistance-basics/
Volume Profiles summary - investopedia.com/terms/p/pricebyvolume.asp
Bollinger Bands summary - investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp
Fake exchange volume summary - blockchaintransparency.org/
OBV - investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp
CCI summary - investopedia.com/terms/c/commoditychannelindex.asp
ATR summary - investopedia.com/terms/a/atr.asp
Overall the last 24 hours (15th of January) were bearish and I am neutral for the next 24 hrs.
Detailed Summary:
This chart uses 1 hour Traditional Candlestick chart, Volume Profile Visible Ranges, Bollinger Bands, 4 EMAs (9/15/21/55), CCIOBV & ATR.
Traditional candlesticks charts is the most popular charting pattern. It is great for shorter time frame trading, such as day trading, and for identifying exit/entry for longer term trades. The candlestick patterns are determined by the OHLC (Open High Low Close) unlike Heikin Ashi candlesticks with are ‘averaged out’. This means that there is a lot more price action in the chart and traders can enter/exit trend changes earlier than other more trend based charting styles.
During the last day the price has ranged by $150, opening at $3746 and closing at $3644. The price has decreased/consolidated over the period which is a continuation of the long term price trend. The most important charting pattern during this period was the shooting star that occured at 3:00 and the large bearish engulfing candle that occurred at 22:00.
Exponential Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Exponential Moving Averages on the hourly time frame. The 55 MA is red, the 21 MA is orange, the 15 MA is yellow and the 9 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Exponential Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
Exponential Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Exponential Moving Averages on the hourly time frame. The 55 MA is red, the 21 MA is orange, the 15 MA is yellow and the 9 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish . For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish . It is also important to note that the longer the Exponential Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
During the last day the price is closest to the 9 Moving Average and during this period it has trended around the 55 Moving Average. The 55 Moving Average is currently acting as resistance while the 55 Moving Average is acting as support. The key Support area is $3300 and key Resistance areas is $3686. I forecast in the next day that price will not test the next resistance area.
Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands).
During the last day the Bollinger Bands have contracted by $136 from $272 to $136. The decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to decreased price volatility during the day. The wicks broke through the upper band on 0 hourly candles, lower band on 9 hourly candles and stayed within the bands on 15 hourly candles. I forecast in the next day that the Bollinger Bands will consolidate and overall trend is bearish.
Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend.
During this period volume has consolidated in convergence with the recent price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is below the 20 MA volume line. I forecast in the next day that the volume will consolidate and this will support a consolidation of price.
Volume Profile Session Volume (VPSV) indicator show volume by price as a horizontal histogram for each 24 hour period. This provides additional insight over traditional volume indicators that are only based on time. By clearly seeing what volume occurred at specific price levels, I can more easily identify key areas of S&R. Two key things to identify are the: POC (Point of Control) which is the price level with the highest volume for a specific period, and the VA (Value Area) which is where 70% of the volume occurred. While VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low) are also worth noting.
During the period the VPSV POC was at 3725 and the VA occurred between 3753 and 3704. Overall, the volume profile is bearish and is in convergence with recent price action.
CCIOBV is a custom trend momentum indicator that combines both OBV and CCI. How the chart is generated is difficult to explain in short, but it’s essential indicators of indicators. All I need to look out for is when OBV is green, that tells me the CCI is greater than the ‘threshold’ (the EMA set at 13 by default) and when red the CCI is below the ‘threshold’. This indicator oscillates and the values on the Y axis are arbitrary, just focus on the overall trend and angle of the slope.
During the period the CCIOBV was mainly green/red and it
During this period CCIOBV has decreased below the threshold. The angle of the slope was moderate and the signal is bearish. I forecast in the next day that the CCIOBV will increase above the threshold which is bullish.
The ATR (Average True Range) is a moving average indicator that measures volatility in the market. It is calculated by averaging the price volatility over a given period of time, say a week. ATR is a valuable risk management tool as it provides a clear signal of when markets are turning volatile or consolidating. As a trend trader using leverage, it guides me on setting stop losses and take profits levels while also telling me when to stay out of the market.
During this period the ATR decreased by 3 from 29 to 26. This signals a consolidation in market volatility. I forecast in the next day that the ATR will decrease and this signals a decrease of price action and an consolidation of price.
References:
Candlestick Chart summary - investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp
Moving Average summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp
Support and Resistance summary - investopedia.com/trading/support-and-resistance-basics/
Volume Profiles summary - investopedia.com/terms/p/pricebyvolume.asp
Bollinger Bands summary - investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp
Fake exchange volume summary - blockchaintransparency.org/
OBV - investopedia.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp
CCI summary - investopedia.com/terms/c/commoditychannelindex.asp
ATR summary - investopedia.com/terms/a/atr.asp
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