BTCUSD 1H chart (5/15/2019)
アップデート済
Good morning traders. "Journalists" and "analysts" have littered social media lately with "explanations" of why price has reached the level it has, most often justifying it as a result of Fidelity, AmeriTrade, and Baakt entering the market. The reality is that price is exactly where I said it would be in January/February, long before all this news even hinted at coming out. As a matter of fact, at that time Baakt actually postponed its launch. As I have continued to state for the past year and a half, the news is already in the charts. Most traders just don't see the movement until it happens.
At this point, price is just grinding its way toward, what I believe will be, the blow off top. I remain long, holding for the $9000 level. If this final subwave count plays out as we generally expect the average wave set to do, then we should see price topping out around $9300. In terms of parabolic price action, Base 3 is around $4650. Since we generally expect price to double from Base 3, this would give us an expected target in the area of $9300 as well. If this final wave count prints an ending diagonal, then we should expect a shorter target as the waves will overlap each other. In that case, price is more likely to complete in the orange box between the R2 pivot and the green box ($8725-$9180). Please keep in mind, volume is low and the order books are thin as this is the final bit of the upward movement so price could always surge higher or stop just short of the targets. Attempting to trade this very last bit of movement most often causes traders to lose money so don't be afraid to take some profit and wait for the retracement.
As I've mentioned, I believe the initial retracement will be sharp and potentially bounce at the $7000-$7400 level, toward $8100, before falling further. This would complete the blow off top. So traders can attempt to short the drop but, as always, it's risky as you may not be able to log into your exchange due to server overload as other traders attempt to log in and short it as well. I have been looking for a bottom in the 6000s but have mentioned the possibility of heading a bit lower as well. Ultimately, I wouldn't expect price to drop below Base 3 between $4600 and $5600. My expectation would be for price to bounce in the $5300-$5600 range if it does get to that level and then consolidate in the 6000s before heading up once again. This drop and consolidation should likely take around 3-4 weeks during which time I expect that alts will have a bit of a party.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
At this point, price is just grinding its way toward, what I believe will be, the blow off top. I remain long, holding for the $9000 level. If this final subwave count plays out as we generally expect the average wave set to do, then we should see price topping out around $9300. In terms of parabolic price action, Base 3 is around $4650. Since we generally expect price to double from Base 3, this would give us an expected target in the area of $9300 as well. If this final wave count prints an ending diagonal, then we should expect a shorter target as the waves will overlap each other. In that case, price is more likely to complete in the orange box between the R2 pivot and the green box ($8725-$9180). Please keep in mind, volume is low and the order books are thin as this is the final bit of the upward movement so price could always surge higher or stop just short of the targets. Attempting to trade this very last bit of movement most often causes traders to lose money so don't be afraid to take some profit and wait for the retracement.
As I've mentioned, I believe the initial retracement will be sharp and potentially bounce at the $7000-$7400 level, toward $8100, before falling further. This would complete the blow off top. So traders can attempt to short the drop but, as always, it's risky as you may not be able to log into your exchange due to server overload as other traders attempt to log in and short it as well. I have been looking for a bottom in the 6000s but have mentioned the possibility of heading a bit lower as well. Ultimately, I wouldn't expect price to drop below Base 3 between $4600 and $5600. My expectation would be for price to bounce in the $5300-$5600 range if it does get to that level and then consolidate in the 6000s before heading up once again. This drop and consolidation should likely take around 3-4 weeks during which time I expect that alts will have a bit of a party.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
ノート
Looks like the 10K+ target may actually be hit. No guarantees, but I'm playing it this way with no problem selling before then if price turns around.
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