Bitcoin - August 19, 2020 (Bullish)

2020年8月19日

BTCUSD

Hi everyone,

... back with another update.



It has been a while, but I decided to decrease the frequency of my posts and only post when we have significant new data points to update our analysis.


First of all: I am still bullish, despite the recent dump (~7%).

In my last post,

- I mentioned an ascending triangle.

** The triangle that I drew at that time got invalidated.

** But... On the (1D) chart below (top), I have drawn a new (wider) ascending triangle, with a top line at the 12,100 resistance. On Monday, BTC tried to break that resistance for the 3rd time, but again got rejected. However, note (a) that the 3 consecutive rejections (red rectangles) have set 3 consecutive higher lows (blue rectangels) and (2) that the previous 2 rejections were short-lived and followed by a continuation of the price increase. I expect the same for this rejection. Hence, in my opinion, this may be a buy the dip-opportunity.

** Note that the latest rejection bottomed out at the confluence of the .236 Fib and the 1D SMA (red curve) (+/- 11,650). BTC is currently resting on top of the 11,850 level. The 11,650 - 11,850 price band will probably be(come) a new primary support level.

** If we zoom in on the 4H chart (bottom), we notice that (1) we are printing a red 9 on the TDS, (2) the last 3 lows are consecutively higher, (3) the low of the current (4h) candle corresponds to the (4H) 50-period SMA (green curve) and (4) the volume is decreasing. Hence, BTC seems to be consolidating and preparing itself for the next move. We may still be up for a final push down, but I do believe that we will bottom near 11,650.




___________________________________________________________________________________________________



OPINION (unchanged): BULLISH

ANALYSIS (updated):
-----------------------------
See above