A Longer Term Picture: Zooming out on BTCUSD
** DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. This is my opinion only, based on personal experiences. Never blindly follow the advice of some dude on the internet. Do your own research, and don't invest more than you can afford to lose.**
I'd like to do a little timeline of events that I think are likely to happen if history does in fact rhyme.
From the current moment projected out about 4 weeks, I see a potential rally back to 48k levels shortly after a double bottom forms around the 30k support. At that the time of that double bottom, RSI indicators will likely all be pointing to severely oversold levels. Some newer traders may think that was the end of the correction, but I'd like to paint an alternative picture.
The newer money will happily buy in, quoting the 100k narrative by year's end. The price rallies to 48k and starts to see a little resistance and dips a moment. No problem! It's just got to cool off before the next big rally, right? Your friends are telling you it's the new accumulation zone. Suddenly, the price starts dipping deeper and faster than anyone expected. People find some news event around PayPal or Elon Musk to blame it on and will tell you to hold on tight. Diamond hands they say. The price falls back down to the 30k support zone and holds on tight. Phew, at least you can count on that time-tested support to stay strong! Little local rallies kick in, bouncing off the 30k support zone for weeks on end. You start to notice something. The peaks get gradually lower and with less volume than the preceding peak. You take out your drawing tools and notice a large descending triangle shape forming a hypotenuse along the price peaks. You discover that the price is already at the meeting of the hypotenuse and the 30k support, the completion of descending triangle. You know that this is a very bearish signal, so you hop on to your exchange and start to sell. Others are doing the same, and a cascade of selling pressure ensues. A few bloody waterfalls of margin calls and panic selling later, a new support is finally found somewhere around the previous All Time High. It even dips below that for a moment, scaring the bejeebus out of you and your friends who bought in at 16k. Prices moves sideways between 18k and 24k for weeks, and you wonder if it'll ever rally again. After a few months, you decide you want to take some profits and sell some of your holdings to pay for gifts during the holidays. In the coming months, the price of Bitcoin continues to appear uninteresting, uneventful, and forgotten. Then, you notice a price blip above 24k-- the first one in months! You decide to pull out the drawing tools and notice a familiar pattern. Another triangle, but this time, the hypotenuse is below the support and the dips are posting higher lows than the preceding one. You know a technical breakout is coming soon, so you buy in at 25k. Within a few weeks, a test of 30k happens. It continues to bounce off of that previous support turned resistance, and you notice the 38 and 62 moving averages start to pinch off, indicating a cross over in trend direction. You put on your helmet, board the space ship, and brace for the g-force of the coming launch.
Will it play out exactly this way? Who knows. There are some compelling arguments out there that have me convinced the coming correction will be shorter than the last Crypto Winter. The biggest argument of them all being the massive money printing and looming hyper inflation event for the US dollar. A lot of people are looking for ways to protect their purchasing power from that. Collectibles and value storage mechanisms like high-end art, Pokemon/Magic cardsd, gold, real estate, NFTs, and deflationary crypto projects are likely to be top candidates for that role. Go with what you understand. Protect yourself and your loved ones the best ways you know how. Do your research, and plan for opportunities while people are panicking.
Thanks for stopping by!
I'd like to do a little timeline of events that I think are likely to happen if history does in fact rhyme.
From the current moment projected out about 4 weeks, I see a potential rally back to 48k levels shortly after a double bottom forms around the 30k support. At that the time of that double bottom, RSI indicators will likely all be pointing to severely oversold levels. Some newer traders may think that was the end of the correction, but I'd like to paint an alternative picture.
The newer money will happily buy in, quoting the 100k narrative by year's end. The price rallies to 48k and starts to see a little resistance and dips a moment. No problem! It's just got to cool off before the next big rally, right? Your friends are telling you it's the new accumulation zone. Suddenly, the price starts dipping deeper and faster than anyone expected. People find some news event around PayPal or Elon Musk to blame it on and will tell you to hold on tight. Diamond hands they say. The price falls back down to the 30k support zone and holds on tight. Phew, at least you can count on that time-tested support to stay strong! Little local rallies kick in, bouncing off the 30k support zone for weeks on end. You start to notice something. The peaks get gradually lower and with less volume than the preceding peak. You take out your drawing tools and notice a large descending triangle shape forming a hypotenuse along the price peaks. You discover that the price is already at the meeting of the hypotenuse and the 30k support, the completion of descending triangle. You know that this is a very bearish signal, so you hop on to your exchange and start to sell. Others are doing the same, and a cascade of selling pressure ensues. A few bloody waterfalls of margin calls and panic selling later, a new support is finally found somewhere around the previous All Time High. It even dips below that for a moment, scaring the bejeebus out of you and your friends who bought in at 16k. Prices moves sideways between 18k and 24k for weeks, and you wonder if it'll ever rally again. After a few months, you decide you want to take some profits and sell some of your holdings to pay for gifts during the holidays. In the coming months, the price of Bitcoin continues to appear uninteresting, uneventful, and forgotten. Then, you notice a price blip above 24k-- the first one in months! You decide to pull out the drawing tools and notice a familiar pattern. Another triangle, but this time, the hypotenuse is below the support and the dips are posting higher lows than the preceding one. You know a technical breakout is coming soon, so you buy in at 25k. Within a few weeks, a test of 30k happens. It continues to bounce off of that previous support turned resistance, and you notice the 38 and 62 moving averages start to pinch off, indicating a cross over in trend direction. You put on your helmet, board the space ship, and brace for the g-force of the coming launch.
Will it play out exactly this way? Who knows. There are some compelling arguments out there that have me convinced the coming correction will be shorter than the last Crypto Winter. The biggest argument of them all being the massive money printing and looming hyper inflation event for the US dollar. A lot of people are looking for ways to protect their purchasing power from that. Collectibles and value storage mechanisms like high-end art, Pokemon/Magic cardsd, gold, real estate, NFTs, and deflationary crypto projects are likely to be top candidates for that role. Go with what you understand. Protect yourself and your loved ones the best ways you know how. Do your research, and plan for opportunities while people are panicking.
Thanks for stopping by!
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