BTC/USD 15 min/4H charts (10/23/2018)

2018年10月23日

Good morning, traders. Overnight we saw Bitcoin return to fill the gap as mentioned it would do yesterday. But, in doing so, price has moved below the black ascending channel that was in the process of printing so I have removed it. More 15 minute gaps were created on the move down so we can expect price to fill them as well now. We also saw a large spike in volume on the candle low, suggesting absorption continues to happen in that area. This was the largest volume that we have seen on that TF in the past five days. RSI bounced off oversold and MACD just crossed bullishly on the 15 minute TF. OBV fell through the bottom of the ascending channel, which became an ascending wedge, that it's been in since 10/18, but remains higher overall. My expectation is to see price breach the red descending broadening wedge's resistance and, if it does, then the descending dashed red resistance line as it targets $6470 at least. If price happens to breach the local 4H TR's resistance at $6494, then the expectation is for it to target the previous 4H R1 pivot at $6540. 4H RSI is just shy of bullish at 46 and recently bounced off a minor support level. MACD has just crossed to the bearish side of centerline but is curling up which means its bearishness may be short-lived on this TF. OBV appears to be printing a descending wedge which is bullish if it continues to play out as such.

Looking at the 4H TF, we can see the local TR in blue. It appears to be printing the LPS for the larger black TR ($6100-$6600). Zoomed in, we can denote the BC, AR, ST, and SOW. Why is the previous drop likely a SOW and not an ST? Because of the volume. We see volume continuing to drop as price rose afterward. The current overnight low should be considered a SOW, as well, if we see the same thing. If it is, then we can expect likely price movement downward as this local TR should be considered distribution. However, if it plays out as an ST, then the odds are increased that the local TR is re-accumulation and we can expect to see likely price movement upward. Lack of upward momentum at this time remains suspect as the consolidating volume will likely see a sudden expansion, so traders should approach any entry with caution.

I continue to watch the 1D TR between $6095 and $6587. I believe I mentioned yesterday that the top of the TR was $6384, but that's what I get for hurrying. I apologize for the mistake. Once price moves through the resistance or support of this TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.

Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.