BTCUSD - 40% Cyclical Short Trade? Last Leg of BTC Bear Market?

アップデート済

This market has been in consolidation since June of this year, and the bear has been quicker this year than it was in 2014 ;)

We can see using our 1-2-3 Strategy that we have the trend blowing against our backs; we are trading below the EMA50 on the daily and we have the indicator sitting far below the EMA200.

We are looking for the dark blue trendline to break and close, with the sell-off confirmation (6093ish) or invalidation (6846ish) imminent.

Weekly snapshot:

***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK

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Looks like we are on the way to testing the confirmation level. Below 6,000 I expect heavy action as bulls look to defend their year-long support level and bears look to break them.

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Still consolidating...

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Mcap still consolidating... decision time soon.

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Sign of weakness:

MCAP is falling below EMA50:

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Kissing the trendline!

Mcap is already turning...

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Confirmation line crossed. Daily close will confirm bulls have lost the key 6K level.

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BOOM. Consolidation time? We have broken the long term trend lines, which builds a strong case for our targets.

Note the new TP 1 at $5036.

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We have a confirmation of the trend resumption with the new daily candle. If you zoom out you can see we are trading within a large falling wedge. Typically BTC likes to crash through the bottom trendline of this reversal pattern before carrying out a reversal. If you look back at price action on the large and small timeframes you will see this pattern consistently. A breach of the bottom trendline is necessary to bring capitulation to this market and help spur buyers to take out the margin sellers.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization is also important to watch as it give us clues as to the wider market movements (and which assets are better market performers). I suspect similar price action, with the mcap to fall through the bottom trendline of the large falling wedge pattern.