BTC Rallying above the Daily 200 MA
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This is BTC Technical Analysis.
Current price is in the $7400 region, which is up around $400 since the day started and is currently rallying.
The BTC price action has been in the low $7000 range, since around about the 23rd November (wicking down to around $6400 &, up to the $7800 levels at times).
The current macro trend remains as a downwards since the "blow-off top" in June 2019 (from June's high of around $14,000, down to September's low of around $7400 & high of around $10,000; & December's new local low of around $6400).
Due to the current range trending, Traders can wait for a breakout of the current ranging price action upwards, to reach for a turn of the trend, from trending-down to up; or a continuation of the past trend which is downwards.
Signal to identify a turn of the trend from Downwards, range-trending to, Upwards trending.
When the 20 Daily Simple Moving Average gets above the 200 Daily Simple Moving Average, and the Daily candle closes above the 20 MA which is above the 200 MA - This signifies that potentially stock could start to aim for higher highs and reveal going long opportunities for Traders!
Signal to identify a continuation of the Downwards, range-trending to, continue trending Downwards.
When the 20 MA gets rejected by the 200 MA (the 20 MA comes up to cross over on top of the 200 MA, but it instead remains below the 200 MA) - This signifies that trend is continuing the current micro trend within a range, or that the trend is continuing the current macro trend which is downwards towards the next SAR levels, and skilled Traders may be able find more shorting opportunities in a downwards trend.
Even the most skilled Traders always stay out of trading when price is not trending, but is stuck within a range of SAR (except for some Scalping Traders!).
Have a look at
BTCUSD.
Add the following Indicators to your chart:
20 Daily Simple Moving Average
200 Daily Simple Moving Average
On the current Daily & 4 hour charts, are you able to see where;
Any time the 20 MA (yellow line) is above the 200 MA (orange line) , price action has a bullish sentiment?
And, where the 20 MA falls below the 200 MA, price has a more bearish sentiment?
Of course, experienced Traders will like to delve further into analysis before executing their trades, however the information presented here may be useful for swing or position traders seeking to buy the 'Bitcoin Bottom' & helping traders to decide whether to buy long or short BTC.
As a Trader I seek to go long in uptrends, go short in down trends & I tend not to Day Trade within price ranges except for when the Market signals a potential 'fair-play', for some scalping action on the shorter time-frame!
A Daily close any-day now, above $7700 & $8000's region would signify to me an interesting point of a potential turn of the trend to the upside, & where I look to analyse further for confirmations and entry's for long plays!
I'd be expecting rally's with that breakout, I'd play entry's close the 20 MA and take profits as price rally's away from the 20 MA before it snaps back & retraces, back towards the 20 Ma.
In this case I will go further with TA nearer the time.
Where there is no confirmation of a new potential Macro Trend break upwards, no confirmation Daily closes above key areas of resistance, i'd analyse to confirm that indeed the downtrend has continued or that we continue into the current trading range, waiting for a breakout confirmation again!
Current price is in the $7400 region, which is up around $400 since the day started and is currently rallying.
The BTC price action has been in the low $7000 range, since around about the 23rd November (wicking down to around $6400 &, up to the $7800 levels at times).
The current macro trend remains as a downwards since the "blow-off top" in June 2019 (from June's high of around $14,000, down to September's low of around $7400 & high of around $10,000; & December's new local low of around $6400).
Due to the current range trending, Traders can wait for a breakout of the current ranging price action upwards, to reach for a turn of the trend, from trending-down to up; or a continuation of the past trend which is downwards.
Signal to identify a turn of the trend from Downwards, range-trending to, Upwards trending.
When the 20 Daily Simple Moving Average gets above the 200 Daily Simple Moving Average, and the Daily candle closes above the 20 MA which is above the 200 MA - This signifies that potentially stock could start to aim for higher highs and reveal going long opportunities for Traders!
Signal to identify a continuation of the Downwards, range-trending to, continue trending Downwards.
When the 20 MA gets rejected by the 200 MA (the 20 MA comes up to cross over on top of the 200 MA, but it instead remains below the 200 MA) - This signifies that trend is continuing the current micro trend within a range, or that the trend is continuing the current macro trend which is downwards towards the next SAR levels, and skilled Traders may be able find more shorting opportunities in a downwards trend.
Even the most skilled Traders always stay out of trading when price is not trending, but is stuck within a range of SAR (except for some Scalping Traders!).
Have a look at
BTCUSD.Add the following Indicators to your chart:
20 Daily Simple Moving Average
200 Daily Simple Moving Average
On the current Daily & 4 hour charts, are you able to see where;
Any time the 20 MA (yellow line) is above the 200 MA (orange line) , price action has a bullish sentiment?
And, where the 20 MA falls below the 200 MA, price has a more bearish sentiment?
Of course, experienced Traders will like to delve further into analysis before executing their trades, however the information presented here may be useful for swing or position traders seeking to buy the 'Bitcoin Bottom' & helping traders to decide whether to buy long or short BTC.
As a Trader I seek to go long in uptrends, go short in down trends & I tend not to Day Trade within price ranges except for when the Market signals a potential 'fair-play', for some scalping action on the shorter time-frame!
A Daily close any-day now, above $7700 & $8000's region would signify to me an interesting point of a potential turn of the trend to the upside, & where I look to analyse further for confirmations and entry's for long plays!
I'd be expecting rally's with that breakout, I'd play entry's close the 20 MA and take profits as price rally's away from the 20 MA before it snaps back & retraces, back towards the 20 Ma.
In this case I will go further with TA nearer the time.
Where there is no confirmation of a new potential Macro Trend break upwards, no confirmation Daily closes above key areas of resistance, i'd analyse to confirm that indeed the downtrend has continued or that we continue into the current trading range, waiting for a breakout confirmation again!
ノート
The last 7 days of 2019...Bitcoin BTC traded (within a range) starting between 7726 BTCUSD and to 7053 BTCUSD. On New Years Eve 2019 BTC has seen a low today, of around 7112 BTCUSD and the daily candle currently goes up to around the 7300 USDBTC levels.
The most recent BTCUSD price range has 'hugged' the 20 Simple Moving Average, finding it as overhead resistance from the 29th November 2019, but as underlying support since Christmas Day on December 25th. AND, a wide gap all the way to the 9300 BTCUSD levels is where the flat but slightly downward sloping 200 Simple Moving Average lies overhead!
To consider this market as breaking-out towards the upside, would be to see the 8400 BTCUSD level playing as price support level (at the least!), this is for when you're planning on long positions here;
On the contrary, to consider a continuation of a down-trend where you may be considering shorting the market, the 6400 BTCUSD level is to first (at least) show some strength as a resistance level.
After looking at the fundamentals & technical indicators of BTCUSD, currently my analysis shows slightly more bullish & I accept the Macro & Micro bearish sentiment which is also apparent.
Whilst waiting for a confirmation of a trend in the market, I can say that quiet as it may seem, perhaps! This also seems to be a very interesting time in BTCUSD history, to see what decision the market will take...BTC2020.
ノート
*To consider this market as breaking-out towards the upside, would be to see the 8400 BTCUSD ...UPDATE!!Following the Bullish BTCUSD breakout over the past 24hours from the 8000 levels to around the 8900 levels,
Where BTC price action play's to close daily candle 15th Jan 2020 above previous Macro Trend Line Overhead Resistance levels of around 8100 USDBTC;
We can look to this as A stronger confirmation signal of a change in the trend from recent, Downwards-Ranging to potentially now Up-Trending price action.
For more insight on how to play this current market please read my other recent post about The Bitcoin Bullish Hammer seen on the weekly chart!
ノート
For BTC when you look at the current live Daily Chart, we can see that as the title of this post suggests, since the 4th Jan 2020, from around the 7100 BCUSD levels, Price action has taken a turn upwards! This movement in Price action has "flicked" the 20 Simple Moving Average Upwards & in the direction towards the 200 Simple Moving Average which lays above at around the 9200 BTCUSD levels.
This expected snap back Price action towards the overhead 200 SMA, has acted as a catalytic boost, which has propelled price to rally approximately 27% over the last 13 days!
On January 14th 2020, BTCUSD garnered enough power which compromised the over-head Down-Trending Macro Trend-line at around the 8100 BTCUSD levels! That part of the rally moved around 10% to the upside over the past 5 days!
Q:What then, has halted this rally? A:THE OVERHEAD 200SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE!!
3 day's ago, on the 17th Jan 2020, BTCUSD got up to around the 8900 Levels and this was the first re-test of such levels since all the way back in November 2019, (on the 9th!).
What has halted the rally was & is, the over-head 200 Simple Moving Average!
Price crashed up into the 200 SMA from below on the 17th Jan,
on the 18th Jan Price moved up towards the 200 but didn't quite touch the line, Today, the 19th January Price has wicked above the over head 200 SMA to around 9100 levels, (for the first time since 7th November 2019), however;
Price has also sunken deeper down (in the same candle), wicking down to the 8400 levels (during the current Daily Candle, 19th Jan 2020).
We know that past performance shows (although not indicative of future results!) that Price potentially intends to snap back up to the current overhead 200 SMA, carrying the 20 SMA (acting as micro-support when it's below price and micro- resistance when it's above price) with it to display a Golden Cross.
This is creating a squeeze now between the 20 SMA below at the 8050 Levels (which is currently exactly on & testing the over-head Down-Trending Macro Trend-line) & the over head 200 SMA and the current 9000 BTCUSD levels.
Q: What now?!
These are just my opinions of course! BTCUSD is moving healthily and putting in healthy corrections and consolidations before a break out of key resistance levels overhead, changing the trend to Bullish and the potential start and continuation of a new Bull Cycle.
Lets dive deeper!!
Considering the 20 Day Simple Moving Average & the 200 Day Simple Moving Average.
4 hour chart:- BTCUSD put in a Golden Cross on the 5th January which catapulted to rally 27%, this careered through the over-head Down-Trending Macro Trend-line but is seeing a healthy pull back now; Q: Why? A: Perhaps because there is a Death Cross imminently due and then, inevitably another Golden Cross (after the Death Cross) to spark potentially higher and cabalistic Price action.
Any Price action outside of the over-head Down-Trending Macro Trend-line above 8000 BTCUSD Levels, should be consider Bullish & Price action below the previous Down-Trending Macro Trend-line we should have a potentially Bearish Bias (and carry out analysis for clearer signals where price moves below 8000) (as this puts Price back int the Down-Trending Macro range).
1 Hour Chart:- The same analysis applies for the 1hour chart as the 4hour chart here, a Due Death Cross (allowing healthy consolidation and pull backs) which leads to a new Golden Cross which could boost price.
There are key levels of SAR & the Psychological Price numbers to consider (perhaps will explore in another post!)
*description too long, see below to continue..
ノート
Conclusion of this analysis update- BTCUSD stays above 8000 levels - Micro Bullish.
4 hour & 1 Hour, Healthy corrections and consolidations whist Price acts out the imminent 20 & 200 SMA's Death to Golden Crosses. - Short-term Ranging & consolidation and then Bullish Price action out-side of the previous over-head Down-Trending Macro Trend-line at around the 8100 BTCUSD levels.
Daily chart 20 & 200 Golden cross imminent potentially, after which New Bull Market and ready to test the 10000 USD BTC levels and put in a new Macro Higher High.
* Set up entries above now! consider that
1) we could potentially see some massive price action to the upside, where price sort of rips up to display its golden cross and crashes through overhead resistance backed by the strength of the underlying 20 SMA and the snap Back to overhead 200 SMA, also turning that overhead 200 SMA to new support.
2) Most Institutional Traders (big money) make plays using the analysis behind the 200 SMA...
As a Trader i'm considering putting in entry-orders above current price action (catching any potential rips up!) also, waiting for confirmation of Golden Crosses by the 20 & 200 SMA on the 1 & 4 Hour charts, where this occurs above the 8000 Levels id consider this a buy long signal, id look for more confirmation on the daily chart, that we have a daily close above the 200 SMA.
Feel free to message me to see how to learn my strategies and how I use indicators for entries on the 3 minute chart.
Happy Trading :)
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