Bitcoin in the next six months
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Hello there,
This is my verry first post here on tradingview and i hope you like this analysis. If so give it a thumbs up and leave a comment. If not dont give it a thumbs up but do leave a comment.
This is how I see bitcoin -3.30% -3.40% playing out in the next few months. This is my first analysis done and Im using the elliot 5 wave theorie. And im planning to keep this post updated until the final target is meet.
As you can see I started counting at the low of 6409 dollar witch I believe is a double bottom . The first impulse wave took us to a high of 9942 dollar from where correction wave 2 started whitch, in my view, is not over yet. A correction wave 2 ussually ends at the 0.50 (8172 dollar) or the 0.618 (7752 dollar) fibonacci retracement from the entire movement, the latter would be ideal of course since this acts as the "golden retracement".
From the 0.618 retracement level im expecting the next impulse wave, impulse wave 3 that is, up. Now from this point it gets a bit murky due to the fact that a impulse wave 3 can have different ratios to impulse wave 1. The first one being 1.618 fibbonachi extension, the second one being the 2.618 fibbonachi extention and the thirth one being the 3.618 fibbonachi extention from the entire length of wave one.
For the sake of keeping the options limited right now i will calculate the targets using the 1.618 fibbonachi extention and will post updates if the chart requires that. Using the fibbonaci extension tool from the low of wave 1 to the high of wave 1 we see that the 1.618 level will be somehere around 12150 dollar. As i said before this level is not set in stone and i will post updates if bitcoin -3.30% -3.40% under or overshoots our target and will ajust this analysis accordingly. Once impulse wave three is done we can expect the next correctional wave down, correction wave number 4 that is. Now this one has different levels as well, but the two most common levels are the 0.236 and the 0.382 fibbonachi retracemet of the entire length of impulse wave 3. The first level gives us a target of 11116 dollar and the second one gives us a taget of 10455 dollar.
Due to the fact that a correction wave 4 most of the times ends at the 0.382 retracement (10455 dollar) i will use this level for our target of impulse wave 5. Now impulse wave 5 has a couple of different rules, one set of three (yes three) rules when impulse wave 3 is shorter then the 1.618 extention of wave one and a set of three rules when impulse wave 3 is longer then the 1.618 extention of wave 1. However if i take both set of rules and calculate the most pessimistic target I get somewhere in the vicinity of around 14000 dollar.
And there you have it, I hope you liked my firt analysis and im looking forward to the comments below and my future updates on this post.
Have a nice week and trade safe
This is my verry first post here on tradingview and i hope you like this analysis. If so give it a thumbs up and leave a comment. If not dont give it a thumbs up but do leave a comment.
This is how I see bitcoin -3.30% -3.40% playing out in the next few months. This is my first analysis done and Im using the elliot 5 wave theorie. And im planning to keep this post updated until the final target is meet.
As you can see I started counting at the low of 6409 dollar witch I believe is a double bottom . The first impulse wave took us to a high of 9942 dollar from where correction wave 2 started whitch, in my view, is not over yet. A correction wave 2 ussually ends at the 0.50 (8172 dollar) or the 0.618 (7752 dollar) fibonacci retracement from the entire movement, the latter would be ideal of course since this acts as the "golden retracement".
From the 0.618 retracement level im expecting the next impulse wave, impulse wave 3 that is, up. Now from this point it gets a bit murky due to the fact that a impulse wave 3 can have different ratios to impulse wave 1. The first one being 1.618 fibbonachi extension, the second one being the 2.618 fibbonachi extention and the thirth one being the 3.618 fibbonachi extention from the entire length of wave one.
For the sake of keeping the options limited right now i will calculate the targets using the 1.618 fibbonachi extention and will post updates if the chart requires that. Using the fibbonaci extension tool from the low of wave 1 to the high of wave 1 we see that the 1.618 level will be somehere around 12150 dollar. As i said before this level is not set in stone and i will post updates if bitcoin -3.30% -3.40% under or overshoots our target and will ajust this analysis accordingly. Once impulse wave three is done we can expect the next correctional wave down, correction wave number 4 that is. Now this one has different levels as well, but the two most common levels are the 0.236 and the 0.382 fibbonachi retracemet of the entire length of impulse wave 3. The first level gives us a target of 11116 dollar and the second one gives us a taget of 10455 dollar.
Due to the fact that a correction wave 4 most of the times ends at the 0.382 retracement (10455 dollar) i will use this level for our target of impulse wave 5. Now impulse wave 5 has a couple of different rules, one set of three (yes three) rules when impulse wave 3 is shorter then the 1.618 extention of wave one and a set of three rules when impulse wave 3 is longer then the 1.618 extention of wave 1. However if i take both set of rules and calculate the most pessimistic target I get somewhere in the vicinity of around 14000 dollar.
And there you have it, I hope you liked my firt analysis and im looking forward to the comments below and my future updates on this post.
Have a nice week and trade safe
ノート
Well ...we can prettty much throw this idea in the garbage I guess :(
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