Possible bounce of the downtrend channel?
We all obviously know about the big BTC dump. Here are a few ideas as to why BTC is dropping so much.
The Negative-
1. Wallstreet- Options expiration for the current contract expires on January 17th. They make the most money on their short positions if the price is low before expiration. It is also convenient that CNBC (who is obviously in bed with Wallstreet) keeps hosting high level execs who keep fudding Bitcoin to all the sheep. This accelerates selling to Wallstreets benefit.
2. China and Korean FUD. Threats of banning and clamping down on regulation cause mass panic and selling. Anyone who has been in the game long enough and has been through the China FUD before knows it is just media manipulation to buy cheaper BTC.
3. Chinese New Year causes historical selloffs in the cryprocurrency markets.
The Positive-
1. The futures contract is ending in a day and I doubt the next big bet will be for downside as we are severely oversold.
2. Asian FUD will go away
3. Wallstreet is getting their annual bonus payouts this week and might buy some crypto proceeding a big contract reversal. They can make money off the new contract and their actual crypto position.
The Chart-
We are hovering at the support line of the downtrend channel. This also happens to be around the same area that the 100 Day moving average is. This is acting as a tough support in my opinion. We might see another bounce before testing for more downside.
Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments!
The Negative-
1. Wallstreet- Options expiration for the current contract expires on January 17th. They make the most money on their short positions if the price is low before expiration. It is also convenient that CNBC (who is obviously in bed with Wallstreet) keeps hosting high level execs who keep fudding Bitcoin to all the sheep. This accelerates selling to Wallstreets benefit.
2. China and Korean FUD. Threats of banning and clamping down on regulation cause mass panic and selling. Anyone who has been in the game long enough and has been through the China FUD before knows it is just media manipulation to buy cheaper BTC.
3. Chinese New Year causes historical selloffs in the cryprocurrency markets.
The Positive-
1. The futures contract is ending in a day and I doubt the next big bet will be for downside as we are severely oversold.
2. Asian FUD will go away
3. Wallstreet is getting their annual bonus payouts this week and might buy some crypto proceeding a big contract reversal. They can make money off the new contract and their actual crypto position.
The Chart-
We are hovering at the support line of the downtrend channel. This also happens to be around the same area that the 100 Day moving average is. This is acting as a tough support in my opinion. We might see another bounce before testing for more downside.
Feel free to let me know what you think in the comments!
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Remember to watch the RSI level and analyze its past movements to help determine the proper entries.
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I apologize for not adjusting the MACD indicator. You will have to adjust it as I can't edit that after the post was added.
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It looks like the chart is holding up nicely. We dipped pretty hard and went below the trendline but now we are back with strength for now. If you like this idea please like for me. Thanks!
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The bounce happened but it was very small. I don't like the price action and expect another drop to fully exhaust the RSI on the daily chart.
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We are getting a bit of bullish action today. I am curious to see if we can close above the channel on the 4 hour chart and above the 9 DMA on the daily chart. This should be an exciting weekend...
We are getting a bit of bullish action today. I am curious to see if we can close above the channel on the 4 hour chart and above the 9 DMA on the daily chart. This should be an exciting weekend...
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Keep in mind that the last time we bounced off the down channel trendline on the daily chart we were met with resistance at the 9 and 13 DMA's Thick pink and orange lines on the chart) and made a lower low in the days that followed. After that new low was made we bounced of the bottom of the channel and made a run to the top of the channel where a breakout was rejected.
Keep in mind that the last time we bounced off the down channel trendline on the daily chart we were met with resistance at the 9 and 13 DMA's Thick pink and orange lines on the chart) and made a lower low in the days that followed. After that new low was made we bounced of the bottom of the channel and made a run to the top of the channel where a breakout was rejected.
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The 3 hour chart also looks like it is stuck at triange resistance.
The 3 hour chart also looks like it is stuck at triange resistance.
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I am not fully convinced of this rebound until we get a strong close above the 13 DMA on the daily chart. We are not out of the woods yet :)
I am not fully convinced of this rebound until we get a strong close above the 13 DMA on the daily chart. We are not out of the woods yet :)
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It looks like there is clear rejection at the 13 DMA but it is stuck between it and the 3 DMA. It is a bullish signal if the 3 DMA crosses above the 13 DMA. We are in no mans land until it makes a move. I am rooting for more downside so we can finally reach the needed technical requirement (200 DMA on the daily chart) for a proper bull run to new highs.
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It looks like we are very close to a Parabolic SAR flip on the 4 hour chart accompanied by an extremely overdone Stoch RSI. We should get more downside soon.
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It looks like my suspicions were correct. We can’t have 100% downside conviction until we close deep it the red. I see a lot of fear on all the boards and chatrooms. We might be in for a bigger drop overnight as algos like to attack while humans sleep.
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The 200 day moving average on the daily chart is a great buying opportunity. Watch as the trade develops. It might not go straight there as temporary bounces may happen. Remember that just like pullbacks in an uptrend, temporary bounces are just inverse pullbacks in a downtrend.
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More downside coming. I am still watching the 200 day moving average on the daily chart as each day passes for a possible dip buy.
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This is my "today only" scenario for today. Especially if the algos drop it low overnight while humans sleep.
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Here is a visual display of different outcomes with BTC. I personally home we finish this correction before going up. That would be too perfect :)
Here is a visual display of different outcomes with BTC. I personally home we finish this correction before going up. That would be too perfect :)
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BTC is off its lows and touched one of the weaker triangle supports today. So far it is still under the 100 DMA which is bearish considering it was just taken out yesterday. I expect more downside (likely) and could also see a breach and retaking of the 100 day moving average in the next session (possible but not as likely).