ビットコイン／米ドルロング
Bitcoin - Wycoff Accumulation - Is it done?
アップデート済
With 5 straight days of positive price action, I have noted elsewhere that this is the longest rune of green bars since the all time high of 65k. Actually, it is the longest run of green bars since March 12, 2021. Taken in context with the reversal signals I listed in my previous post, I get the feeling that the post-correction consolidation period is ending and we are beginning to turn the corner back towards a resumption of this halving cycle’s Bull Run.
Placed in terms of the Wyckoff pattern, I note that July has represented a re-distribution pattern with the drop to 28.7k being the “Spring” of that redistribution. This has provided a basis for re-accumulation at low prices for very brave speculators and the skilful manipulators, but I believe the accumulation game has now been played and they will be growing confidence back into the market to ensure they can capitalise on their accumulated positions with future higher prices. If that is the case, we can expect to see a re-test of the 1D 20MA, then a cautious climb back toward 40k. I expect a pull-back from that point before a surge toward 47k and then onwards after a brief consolidation.
Alternatively, one could argue that the “Spring” is not yet sprung, but I doubt we will go any lower than
31K from here, which you will note is an untested support zone.
What do you think will happen:
Placed in terms of the Wyckoff pattern, I note that July has represented a re-distribution pattern with the drop to 28.7k being the “Spring” of that redistribution. This has provided a basis for re-accumulation at low prices for very brave speculators and the skilful manipulators, but I believe the accumulation game has now been played and they will be growing confidence back into the market to ensure they can capitalise on their accumulated positions with future higher prices. If that is the case, we can expect to see a re-test of the 1D 20MA, then a cautious climb back toward 40k. I expect a pull-back from that point before a surge toward 47k and then onwards after a brief consolidation.
Alternatively, one could argue that the “Spring” is not yet sprung, but I doubt we will go any lower than
31K from here, which you will note is an untested support zone. What do you think will happen:
- A small correction and then upward towards 37k and then 40k?
- A deeper correction to 31K then upward? or
- A much deeper correction to a new lower-low?
ノート
Well that escalated quickly! An immediate spike up to 39.7k was not an option I was anticipating, but this places BTC in the vicinity to "jump the creek". Time to ready the popcorn to see if it can climb over 43k in the next few days.ノート
Obviously the completion of the Wyckoff model has now been accelerated and BTC is now looking to "Jump the creek" and reclaim the 50k price tag. Below I identify a nice Cup & Handle formation that gets the price to 48.5k from which momentum can carry it over 50k. The speed of this recovery is amazing. We are in our 8th straight day of green bars. The longest run since ... actually, if this bar closes green, it will be the longest run of green bars this entire Bull Run!
Will we see 50K sooner, or later?
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