DrJLT

Bitcoin: How will it break out?

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BITFINEX:BTCUSD   ビットコイン/米ドル
It appears that the week-long correction has finished. In the end, we retraced less than 0.5; this suggests that the bears are rather weak (even though the bulls haven't been performing). The latter can be explained by two factors: 1. new money isn't coming in as it did in Nov / Dec 17, 2. Chinese NY holidays.

In maintain my view that the crashes have been inorganic. Investors weren't selling; it was rather manipulators & day traders that sold. In my YT video, I made some guesses regarding the motives of the manipulators.

At this point, we could roughly still have a H&S within H&S


The .786 level from the bottom (blue dotted line) is a resistance. While we're forming an ascending triangle, I'm not convinced that a direct breakout will take place, for the oscillators show overbought condition & the bulls are still not determined. A possible scenario is therefore a small drop, preferably slowly, to 9.8k before regaining momentum.

Then, we have the downward resistance line that connects the ATH, the bull trap high, & roughly the top of the recent crash.

With all the improvements on bitcoin / crypto's fundamentals as well as BRIGHT outlook (I predict 100k in 2018), to me there's no doubt that a breakout will happen sooner or later, but my crystal ball doesn't work that well for the mid-term.

At this point, I also don't think it's wise to start counting waves. That works better for the longer term.

Having said that, it only takes one pump to reach 12k.

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