Waiting for this cycle to unfold I'm starting to see 2 repeats of the same scenario not 3-4 cycles like some believe they have lived through.
Cycle 1 & 2 both have this "accumulation" at the macro channel bottom hovering just under the
100 2 Week Moving Average
How this plays out is the 30 2 Week Moving Average clamps down onto the 100 right before making a strong reverse.
Between Cycles we see a "honey moon period" I'm not sure what else to call it, followed by a new cycle.
Watching the S2F this period is looking more like the start of a new cycle with 2 "Bull markets" inside the trend, both identical 100/30 MA.
Taking the credit movement CN10Y/DXY/M2 we see literally an exact match where Bitcoin has front run the expansion of credit before other assets. . This is what Bonds are supposed to do hence "bonds being the smart money".
I built and posted positions I started all around the 20k mark that extends out to 2025-2026 remember with assets like this time is your friend.
Options volatility is pretty much flat > bearish across the board with call options on BTC over 100k by mid 2024 all under the 80% mark.
On top of this Bitcoin miners are slightly more bullish on IV % but rounded up the market is in neutral.
Confirmation I'm looking for is at least $70,000 by end of year.