Will It Go Up or Down?

2019年12月9日

Note: All of what I claim below is simply the way I perceive the market. I am not certain nor do I suggest you take my advice without first taking into consideration what I have said. Whatever you do, be critical of what everyone claims. Those who claim certainty in the market tend to get hurt the most.


Observations:

I personally think that BTC is in a downtrend until it breaks above trendline B. I would suggest to take a better look at the 1D interval to see what I mean.

Since it is still in an overall downtrend, I tend to believe that it is better to be more conservative about where you place profit areas, as buying opportunities tend to quickly fail when the trend is not in it’s favor.

Notice the break up above trendline A. The breakout wasn’t preceded by strong volume which indicates to me that it was rather weakish. Therefore, I’ve decided to consider the rectangular grey box I’ve highlighted as a great profit region. If the price gets to this region and breaks through, I believe there is a high probability that it will at least reach and experience some resistance at trendline B.

But if price breaks below trendline C, I expect the price to experience some resistance on those dashed horizontal trend lines I’ve drawn out. If those fail to hold, I would imagine the next major point of resistance would be trendline D, which happens to be the bottom of the downward trending channel. Expect extreme behavior if it does reach this level.