BTC/USDT: Neutral between 19400 and 24900 (Caution)

JeanJean1983の投稿

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--- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Based on Daily Chart -------

BTC/USDT: Neutral between 19400 and 24900 (Caution)

Context
- The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH reversed a new bullish trend this summer - however the market is now challenging the capacity to go higher, 24900 never been reintegrated
- The global macro remains bearish (Crypto + Stocks market) leads by hawkish ton from central bank and a further inflation risk context
- BTC could outperform ETH in order to let ETH be aligned in term of price with ETH

Previous Analysis 09/09/2022 : https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/urRqiIBC-ETH-USDT-Turn-neutral-1465-and-1800-Downside-risk-active/

Market configuration

- Graphical Elements :

Graphical Resistance = 24900 & 28800
Graphical Support = 19400

- Mathematical Indicators:
EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are resistances at 24900 = Bearish
RSI indicator (below) is below 5% with no divergence = Bearish

- Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci):
A last drop to draw the wave 5 C (4) has been completed - however 24900 never been surpassed
Fibonacci resistance of the wave (3) = 28800
Fibonacci support of the wave (2) is 19400
Fibonacci upside target = 32600
Fibonacci downside target = 16100 / 14600 / 12400

Conclusion

Combining the fondamental situation (Global macro fighting against inflation with hawkish ton from FED) + Technical Elements , it now hard to find element to call for a further recovery, it is better to protect the gains from the summer and wait for clearer situation

Neutral : We turn Neutral between 19400 and 24900, a break below 19400 would validate a further downside towards 16100 first max 14100 for the moment - Only a strong short-squeeze reintegrating 24900 would jeopardize the bear market.

トレード稼働中

19400 broken confirming free fall to 16100

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

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