BTC USD Coinbase: Market Capitulation and Shifts.
We have reached a capitulation in the market at large.
November has been a bloody month. We saw this coming earlier as it was clear that the long term trend for BTC was money leaving the market which translates into weaker supports in price ranges that did not have strong supports (speculative prices around 6000). Well, most of those traders have cleared out.
Looking at coinbase we can see huge volume spikes indicating a lot of "hopeful holders" exiting. Coinbase is not an exchange with high trading volume but it is an exchange that a lot of novices "hold" on, and of course it is the entry point for fiat for the retail traders of several currencies.
Furthermore we should explain that most of the 2017 pumping that occurred was highly influenced by connections between USDT printing and the Bitmex exchange where most of the fiat pairing leveraged trades take place. These leveraged trades are strong influence forces for the price action of btc and will continue to be significant in the coming days for determining the price swings. The picture above highlights where we should expect to range in the coming days. The yellow channel is the price action potential of what is left of the retail traders taking leveraged trades on Bitmex. The green region is the middle ground support we should look to gather up we if we want to think about breaking out.
If we look across the alts we can see that much of the bullish sentiment that was activated on September 12 2018 has been retraced. The end of this motion was fairly bloody but there were good profits to be made on the rise up however we are a new landscape now with a LOT of volatility.
Taking a look here we can see that on an exchange like BINANCE for a USDT pairing that most of the trading took place in positions that were no ideal in terms of profiting from the large pump.
This differs from coinbase and reflects that the volume of retail traders who entered the market at prices above 5000 was quite large and that many of them do not have strong supports of lower priced BTC to hold onto. These are the ones who have capitulated. The holders below 3000 have wethered strong bearish markets and they are going to be much less likely to give up their coins:
Look at how over sold that RSI is for btc, and the CMF, clear signs of bottoming out whereby we should expect money to start flowing into BTC once we have a few psychological shifts take place in the market at large.
For one, BTC price drop has created a type of vacuum that several alts will start to compete for.
As a general rule of thumb we should look towards price drops of BTC to have less effect on the alts than price increase over the coming days. Several alts are going to pump up over the next few days but the longer BTC sits below 5000 and the stronger people start feeling about supports within the yellow channel region the higher potential volatility we will have.
What we have left right now is a BTC exchange market whoes price actions is primarily influenced by leveraged trades on Bitmex. The supports below, towards the 3000s not as susptible to giving up their coins that easily and what we have left is a new market with fresh traders who have experienced their first big bull run with a bear market and capitulation exisiting in an unregulated market where price is highly influced by leveraged traders trying to long and short.
The 4600 price range is a great area to hold that makes a clear divide about our chances of going up, uncertainty that makes for good gains if you are collecting interest and liquidations from leveraged trades (hint: bitmex).
I would recommend buying now if you ever wanted more btc...
One last important note is that even if over the last few weeks we have seen some of bitcoin loose it's hashing power that overall the hashrate of BTC is much higher than it was in 2017 during and prior to the pump, which historically should paint a picture of the next bull run being even bigger.
What do we need? institutional investors? New money for sure... But most of all we need people to exist within their capitulation and experience price ranging within the yellow channel for a while as other alts try to compete with each other for filling the void. Once we see the alts start to try to crawl out of this hole you should be ready for BTC to come and overtake them.
November has been a bloody month. We saw this coming earlier as it was clear that the long term trend for BTC was money leaving the market which translates into weaker supports in price ranges that did not have strong supports (speculative prices around 6000). Well, most of those traders have cleared out.
Looking at coinbase we can see huge volume spikes indicating a lot of "hopeful holders" exiting. Coinbase is not an exchange with high trading volume but it is an exchange that a lot of novices "hold" on, and of course it is the entry point for fiat for the retail traders of several currencies.
Furthermore we should explain that most of the 2017 pumping that occurred was highly influenced by connections between USDT printing and the Bitmex exchange where most of the fiat pairing leveraged trades take place. These leveraged trades are strong influence forces for the price action of btc and will continue to be significant in the coming days for determining the price swings. The picture above highlights where we should expect to range in the coming days. The yellow channel is the price action potential of what is left of the retail traders taking leveraged trades on Bitmex. The green region is the middle ground support we should look to gather up we if we want to think about breaking out.
If we look across the alts we can see that much of the bullish sentiment that was activated on September 12 2018 has been retraced. The end of this motion was fairly bloody but there were good profits to be made on the rise up however we are a new landscape now with a LOT of volatility.
Taking a look here we can see that on an exchange like BINANCE for a USDT pairing that most of the trading took place in positions that were no ideal in terms of profiting from the large pump.
This differs from coinbase and reflects that the volume of retail traders who entered the market at prices above 5000 was quite large and that many of them do not have strong supports of lower priced BTC to hold onto. These are the ones who have capitulated. The holders below 3000 have wethered strong bearish markets and they are going to be much less likely to give up their coins:
Look at how over sold that RSI is for btc, and the CMF, clear signs of bottoming out whereby we should expect money to start flowing into BTC once we have a few psychological shifts take place in the market at large.
For one, BTC price drop has created a type of vacuum that several alts will start to compete for.
As a general rule of thumb we should look towards price drops of BTC to have less effect on the alts than price increase over the coming days. Several alts are going to pump up over the next few days but the longer BTC sits below 5000 and the stronger people start feeling about supports within the yellow channel region the higher potential volatility we will have.
What we have left right now is a BTC exchange market whoes price actions is primarily influenced by leveraged trades on Bitmex. The supports below, towards the 3000s not as susptible to giving up their coins that easily and what we have left is a new market with fresh traders who have experienced their first big bull run with a bear market and capitulation exisiting in an unregulated market where price is highly influced by leveraged traders trying to long and short.
The 4600 price range is a great area to hold that makes a clear divide about our chances of going up, uncertainty that makes for good gains if you are collecting interest and liquidations from leveraged trades (hint: bitmex).
I would recommend buying now if you ever wanted more btc...
One last important note is that even if over the last few weeks we have seen some of bitcoin loose it's hashing power that overall the hashrate of BTC is much higher than it was in 2017 during and prior to the pump, which historically should paint a picture of the next bull run being even bigger.
What do we need? institutional investors? New money for sure... But most of all we need people to exist within their capitulation and experience price ranging within the yellow channel for a while as other alts try to compete with each other for filling the void. Once we see the alts start to try to crawl out of this hole you should be ready for BTC to come and overtake them.
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