Crude Oil dropping contrary to fundamental expectations?
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Crude Oil D1 4-9-22:
- Fundamentally there are lots of reasons to expect higher prices
- Seasonals and technicals however point to more downside
Seasonal:
- Seasonally Oil tends to be weak in Q4
- Weakness started earlier this year so might end earlier also (NOV-midterms ?)
Pivot Points:
- Monthly: Price is below SEP Monthly Pivot, heading for S2 = <80.00
- Quarterly : Q3 predicts a run from QPP to QS1 = Yearly Open = Monthly Range Low = 50% retrace of upswing = 75.00
VWAP:
- Yearly VWAP has been broken lower
- Quarterly VWAP in now in charge
- Need a convincing break above QVWAP in order to turn bullish again
Correlation:
- CADJPY normally follows Oil closely, now big divergence
- Divergence probably due to extreme YEN-weakness
- Gives reason for a closer look into CADJPY
.
Crude Oil D1 4-9-22:
- Fundamentally there are lots of reasons to expect higher prices
- Seasonals and technicals however point to more downside
Seasonal:
- Seasonally Oil tends to be weak in Q4
- Weakness started earlier this year so might end earlier also (NOV-midterms ?)
Pivot Points:
- Monthly: Price is below SEP Monthly Pivot, heading for S2 = <80.00
- Quarterly : Q3 predicts a run from QPP to QS1 = Yearly Open = Monthly Range Low = 50% retrace of upswing = 75.00
VWAP:
- Yearly VWAP has been broken lower
- Quarterly VWAP in now in charge
- Need a convincing break above QVWAP in order to turn bullish again
Correlation:
- CADJPY normally follows Oil closely, now big divergence
- Divergence probably due to extreme YEN-weakness
- Gives reason for a closer look into CADJPY
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Sultan of Swing