DXY / US DOLLAR - Bullish Setup - Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake Out

2019年3月23日

In DXY we have an inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern that has formed on the weekly charts. This pattern is considered a bullish pattern and has formed within a larger bullish pennant pattern. Last week we saw price break out of the pennant and then pull back in, setting up a short-term bearish scenario. That saw price drop all of the way to the bottom of the pennant. Price briefly tagged the bottom of the pennant and rocketed back up, pulling all of the way back into the previous weeks price range. This has set up the current bullish fake out pattern and could provide the fuel necessary to finally break out of the pennant and see price reach the 99-100 area (or higher).

DXY is not directly tradable but it does have an impact on a lot of markets. There are a number of setups that have occurred that I will be discussing in other videos. I will link to those other videos here.

2019年3月23日

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2019年3月23日

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EURUSD

2019年3月24日

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2019年3月27日

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Just a heads up folks, if DXY closes at or below 96.80 today it will have thrown a short term bearish signal which could see DXY fall back a bit. For those of you in long dollar trades, that would be an opportunity to hedge. That's a big if since there is a lot of time left in today.

2019年3月28日

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Some of you probably noticed yesterdays candle didn't close as a pin bar, but actually a very bullish candle. That mean't the party was still going. That become clear today as DXY rocketed up another 30-40 cents.

Astute traders are likely aware that there is major resistance at 97.20ish level, which is the top of this pennant that DXY has been trapped in for months. Predictably we are getting a pullback from this level. Pullbacks often occur at these levels, even then there is a breakout about to occur. I don't see any red flags yet, but if price closes near or below today's high that will signal a very increased likelihood of a pullback. At this point I would lightly some of my long positions and look to buy back in at a key support level. It wouldn't mean 99-100 is not in the cards anymore, but in the near term price could rotate lower. What I would prefer to see if price at least close above yesterday's high. In which case I won't lighten my position and will let the trade continue to run.

There are a lot of if's here, but make sure you have a plan in any scenario.