RLinda ! Ahead of week 46. Overview of DXY, GOLD, EURUSD, BTCUSD

2022年11月13日

Tomorrow opens a new five-day trading session, cryptocurrency is an exception, so trading is 24/7. What to expect in the 46th week of 2022? Let's figure it out!

• The dollar index falls to a three-month low
  
• Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure
  
• Fundamental factors hint at future rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve
  
• Gold rises to $1772 by the end of the five-day session.
  

[I](Chart 1. Dollar index. Daily timeframe. Price action and technical indicators)

The dollar index fell about 3.8% to its lowest since Aug. 16, 2022 Thursday on better-than-expected consumer price index data, and it reached important support there. The downward momentum that ended last week is likely to continue at least into the beginning of next week.

The long rally in the U.S. currency over the past two years has attracted a lot of dollar bulls, leading to an overcrowded positioning, and Thursday's data caused many of them to look for a quick exit. This was influenced by the biggest two-day drop in percentage terms (3.8%) since March 2009
Still, some strategists warned that dollar bears remain vulnerable to a possible rebound in the near term.

Technical indicators:

• The dollar index is updating its low from Aug. 16, 2022.
  
• The trading instrument is gaining resistance in the form of the daily MA-50 and is seeking support from the MA-200, at the moment the moving averages are still pointing to a bullish trend.
  
• Daily MACD is in a bullish condition and just increasing the momentum in a bullish trend formation phase
  
• Daily RSI is approaching the oversold area, which also indicates a strong bearish move
  

[I](Chart 2. XAUUSD. Daily timeframe. Price action and technical indicators)

Gold rose in early trading Friday as the dollar continued to weaken after its biggest drop in 13 years after the U.S. reported Thursday that inflation rose 7.7 percent year on year in October, 0.2 percentage points below the consensus forecast, and China loosened some of its Covid-19 restrictions.
The ICE dollar index was last down 1.85 points to 106.36, making gold more accessible to international buyers.

Rising positive factors raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest rate hikes at the next policy committee meeting in mid-December, boosting stock and commodity markets.

Technical indicators:

• Gold is gaining support from the daily MA-50 after breaking through channel resistance, and has almost reached resistance in the form of the daily MA-200
  
• Price is in a range and might react strongly enough after testing the upper consolidation line
  
• MACD is going bullish, which is indicated by the Histogram, MACD line and the signal line, which is in the long zone relative to the neutral line.
  
• Daily RSI reaches the overbought zone, which also indicates a bullish trend, but also keep in mind that RSI may show a bearish signal in the near future
  

[I](Chart 3. EURUSD. Daily timeframe. Price action and technical indicators)

EURUSD is renewing its September high after a larger-than-expected slowdown in the US Consumer Price Index, with the currency pair on track to test August's high ahead of the US retail sales report amid rising speculation.

Technical Indicators:

• The price is under the support of the daily MA-50, almost reaching the daily MA-200 on the resistance side, which also coincides with the consolidation resistance, which could trigger a pullback after testing, but if the price goes deeper into the long zone, this maneuver will provoke the activation of orders, which will only push the price up
  
• MACD is in a bullish mood, which is indicated by its indicators
  
• The RSI is approaching an overbought zone, which might coincide with a test of the consolidation resistance and the MA-200 and pull the price down a little
  

[I](Chart 3. BTCUSD. Daily timeframe. Price action and technical indicators)

Bitcoin's drop for three consecutive days registers a 6.5% drop in price. With sustained selling, prices could fall another 4% to retest support at $16,000
A global break of support in the $17622 range showed that the crypto market could extend the current bearish trend it initiated last year.
Bitcoin's market value is 75.93% below its record high of $69,000 and is currently trading at $16,500
The coin's price is down 1.43% and is gradually approaching the psychological support of $16188. However, declining volume indicates that the continued decline has weak bearish momentum.

Also:
After nearly 11 years of inactivity, a significant number of bitcoins finally came on the move Friday morning. A total of 3,500 bitcoins worth more than $60 million came from seven unique bitcoin addresses created on Oct. 7, 2011. This is the first significant awakening of long-dormant bitcoins in months

Technical Indicators:

• Bitcoin, after four days of heightened volatility, is back down to the average of recent months.
  
• The daily MA-50 and MA-200 are acting as resistance, the price is in a range between 17622 and 16188 and is aiming for a retest of the support. A breakdown of the support will open up the potential for bitcoin to fall to the 13970 zone
  
• Daily MACD shows bullish moves, as indicated by the histogram and the signal line
  
• Daily RSI after testing the oversold area returns to the retest, which also indicates a strong bearish trend.
  

Regards R. Linda!