2023 tradingdesk for the dollar

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Hi Traders.

From now i will have one main idea, and all the ideas as we reach cycle targets for the year will be updated in the thread.
Fallow, like so you dont miss the updates.

I dont trade short term, keep in mind my ideas are longer term, and its boring.
We wait for the cycles to bottom and we wait once in the trade for the trade to mature.

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Our trading approch always start with KING dollar since it effects everything.
Then we need to see compare what instrument has the most leverage to trade opposite of the dollar.

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Update march until april:

Current cycles models show that the dollar has downward pressure until end of march.
When using this information to trade we can see on the chart above that for the weekly chart, that we are cathcing up to the 21 weekly MA. That has been our target in this upmove.
The dialy chart show that we are stretched above the 21MA, once the trendline break, we will test the 21MA as target 1 and go below the MA as we find support.

This is our idea for March-April. Will update again for April-June, once this plays out.

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So far everything is going as expected, we fallow the plan.

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So far as expected.
Daily: price tested the 21 daily MA and bounced of it.
Weekly: price is testing the weekly 21 MA.

Cycles stil show downward pressure. But the last fed chair speak was verry hawkish. It looks like they dont want oil and energy prices to go bananas, everytime oil strenghtens they smack it down by being more hawkish.

But they can not raise rates to far or their economy will collapse. We know how it will end eventually.

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Week update for March-April.

Our call was that price will test the daily 21MA and the weekly 21MA. Both came true. Our call for march-april was downside pressure based ot cycles. Looking at the chart we are heading back down and our model is stil valid. Fallow the plan.

If the dollar is down midterm, then commodities will do good.

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Its funny, now we see what will happen post on tradingview because of fear. When we already prepared for what will happen. Its all about looking ahead. Now most will only think about todays issue but not look ahead.

Many wen long dollar since they were reading news, but cycles warned us about the oposite.

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We expected a down move and it happend.

Price is close to avrages, and can stretch more before the downmove is over.

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Update April-May:

Current cycle model shows that dollar will rally into April but it will be choppy price action. A bigger low is expected in may. For now we think a short term low is inn.

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Everyone is short the dollar. Everyone can not be right. Short term we expect price to test the 21MA. Its been depressed.

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Longer term monthly chart is scary for the dollar.Will it test the bottom channel, will it bounce from that, or will it break below the channel. Currently an F-flag forming on the monthly chart.