DXY Dollar Index - Basing Activity

2018年2月5日

DXY Dollar Index
We were looking for DXY to show signs of bottoming prior to
potential reversal to the upside last week. It made a double
bottom/slightly higher low showing a loss of downside
momentum, the first signal needed to show a change is in the
air. Some may remember the way that Gold shifted parallels
just as DXY is now doing prior it bottoming out in mid
December...now we have the same behaviour being displayed
on DXY chart. Today, DXY is now pushing the upper parallel
with near term resistance at 89.30 - it's in a small
continuation pattern running under the parallel which at some
point soon is likely to pop to the upside - but so far we have
no great weight of evidence that DXY is doing much other
than consolidating in a 120 pip range at current levels. We do
have a double bottom which has resulted in range trading so
far, but no higher high to signal a clear reversal as yet. Dollar
bulls have to take DXY through the parallel and then above
the lines of resistance at 89.30 and at 89.51 and finally above
89.65 to really start attracting other buyers - but until they
can achieve this DXY is more likely to range trade, with some
big green candles more likely to emerge now than big reds,
and the price action after that green candle being more gentle
consolidation prior to the next green candle emerging. So
small bursts of upward pressure followed by mild but longer
lasting consolidation - dull, grinding price action in near term
but most likely with an upward bias. Still prefer to buy dips
here though not aggressively so yet.
Need to see 89.65 broken above and held to turn aggressively
bullish of DXY looking for 90.19 initially and then, after
consolidating, to 90.99 and then to the 91.80-91-90 range.
On the downside, DXY has to break below key support at
88.43 to turn negative again in near term down to 87.70
where it becomes a buy again on any such weakness.

2018年2月5日

ノート

DXY Update
Best estimations for likely minor resistance for DXY should it
go on to break above the range soon at 89.62-89.65.
So far DXY is doing well, having touched the upper limits of
the range earlier and is now consolidating by moving sideways
to down towards the suppport line below it at 89.29 where it
should pick up support again. If so, the next surge higher
should/must break above 89.65, triggering further buyers into
the rally and taking DXY up through the various lines of
resistance shown on the chart to a likely high at 92.50 where
it will become vulnerable once again - if not trading the pairs
for neart term rallies between each line on DXY chart as it
breaks higher, all dollar swing longs across the pairs which
have been triggered/confirmed by DXY breaking above 89.65
(and holding up on the next restest as final confirmation),
should be closed down - or at least examined closely and
stops raised high - at this critical point for DXY, as it touches
92.49.
Downside - so far, technically this is range trading, plain and
simple. But the last two pulses upwards have been bear
engulfing and the last little move down was continuation.
So far, this little consolidation looks like continuation too. So
long as it holds up at 89.29 now DXY will look strong again.
Even if this level fails it's likely that 89.02 will arrest any
further decline from here.
It's not confirmed yet - need to see that break above 89.65 to
feel sure about it - but so far each move DXY has made since
FOMC ended has been bullish.