All indexes lost the 18ma yesterday on that dramatic reversal - bearish. On /ES the 18ma is sitting at 3680 and any test of that level is an objective short. We also lost the pitchfork fib support, so I must lean bearish until both the 18ma and the pitchfork fib support (3700 more or less) is retaken. I do think at this point we will go lower into next week. I'll be away from my desk this morning until around 10:30 - good luck!
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fast move up, I'm suspicious of it, but they need to close under 3700 on an hourly candle for me to short it. Right now pitchfork fib is acting as support.
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goal for the day is to take out one or the other level for continuation.
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one minute chart looks like impulse and correction - so far
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18ma support zone is here, expecting a fight for this level
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taking shorts slowly, I expect this to keep dropping rest of day
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starting to lose pitchfork fib but they will fight here for a while I'm sure. Very important level for both sides
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objective short area, with stops of course, shouldn't get over 3700 if correct.
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spy chart reaction at yesterday's trendline, this is what I'm watching for, nothing is decided yet.
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strong rally off support - right now stopped at the .658 fib.
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over that last high and I'll get out of shorts and wait for a safer entry. right now looks like a rejection at .658. again, over 3700 would look bad for bears
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stopped out of most shorts now, going to wait for the morning high to be taken out and see if the market can hold that high as support. I'll hold a few shorts in case this is another B leg.
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if it's a b then something like this (unlikely but possible). Waiting
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a channel on spy I'm watching for break in either direction, should be support on break up/ resistance on breakdown.
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over the high - bullish. I'll wait for a retest to try a long trade. if it fails here it' s a bull trap and they just took out stops. Rally should continue from here.
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back in the channel, not sure what this, waiting
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going to collect a few shorts for the weekend. I don't like the rsi here and we're close to pitchfork resistance. This could be wrong so I'm keeping the position small. Everything looks bullish but my gut tells me otherwise. Gut can be wrong too. OK have a great weekend, I'm going out.
