I have adjusted my prior analysis since the wedge broke. I think ETH/USD could go lower from here, perhaps down to US$2,300 then will start to move a bit laterally towards April 2022 as we approach the 2.0 merger. If merger fails to happen as expected around April/May due to any unforeseen execution challenges, then maybe we fall a bit more, and then as merge occurs we go back to the trend towards $5k and beyond.
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I think we also should keep on watch the evolving situation of Evergrande and the likelihood that Tether has some commercial paper from these developers, not necessarily Evergrande but perhaps some others. If such reserves contain a relevant share of commercial paper, then as Tether provides about 70% of liquidity for BTC, ETH then BTC, ETH could suffer a bit more. It is likely that China bails out Evergrande perhaps selectively and still makes bond coupon payments, but something to keep a close eye.
