ETH Is Reloading — The Next Expansion Will Shock the Market.

一昨日

ETHEREUM 4H MARKET ANALYSIS

1. Current Price Structure
- ETH previously completed a strong impulsive wave up, breaking through multiple resistance levels until it reached the major resistance zone at 4,800–5,000.
- From that zone, price entered a clear distribution phase, followed by a large corrective decline, shown by the descending dotted trendline on your chart.
- Recently, ETH formed a large accumulation range (marked in green), similar to the accumulation phases earlier in the chart where massive trends began.
- Price is currently respecting the bottom of this range, showing signs of building higher lows inside the zone.

2. Liquidity Zones
- Major resistance zone: 4,800–5,000 (the next big target once the accumulation completes).
- Accumulation zone: 2,750–3,150 (where the current building structure is taking place).
- This zone is identical in behavior to the previous accumulation block that preceded the massive ETH rally in mid-year.
- Liquidity has been swept multiple times inside this green zone, indicating smart money absorption.

3. Today’s Market Scenario
This matches the green projection you drew:
🔹 Main Scenario – Bullish Breakout After Accumulation
ETH is likely to:
- Continue ranging inside the accumulation block → building a complex structure of higher lows and equal highs.
- Break the descending trendline with a bullish structure shift.
- Retest the breakout zone creating the final HL inside the range.
- Expand upward, targeting the mid-resistance area around 3,600 – 3,800.
- Continue the larger expansion toward the large resistance zone at 4,800 – 5,000.
This scenario aligns perfectly with your chart’s projected movement.

4. Market Psychology
- Big players are clearly absorbing positions in this wide range.
- Retail traders are getting shaken out by constant spikes up and down.
- This sideways accumulation is typical before a major bullish run.
- Same behavior occurred in earlier zones of your chart → accumulation → breakout → expansion.
- Market is preparing energy for a strong uptrend once liquidity collection is complete.

5. Intraday Strategy Guidance
- No aggressive selling inside the accumulation range — smart money is buying here.
- Look for false breakdowns, wick sweeps, liquidity grabs at the bottom of the green zone.
Best setups:
+ Buy the bottom of the range
+ Buy retest after trendline breakout
+ Targets: 3,600 → 4,000 → 4,500+
This zone is where big investors position themselves before the trend reversal.

一昨日

トレード稼働中

📈 Price Action & Structure
ETH is moving exactly within the accumulation zone you mapped out, with clear and stable boundaries.
This “accumulation → breakout” pattern has been typical for ETH after major corrections, and the current structure strongly suggests the same setup: a bit more sideways movement before a potential upward expansion.
A clean breakout above the upper boundary of this range would likely trigger the next bullish leg.

🌍 Macro Factors Supporting the Bullish Outlook
1. Global monetary policy & liquidity outlook
- With signs of economic slowdown, major central banks (especially the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan) are being watched closely for policy adjustments.
- If the Fed moves toward rate cuts, global liquidity increases — and risk-on assets like ETH tend to benefit strongly.
- A weaker USD also historically supports higher crypto prices since it makes USD-denominated assets cheaper for global investors.

2. JGB 20-Year Yield Spike — Global Shock Impact
- The sharp rise in Japan’s 20-year Government Bond (JGB20) has surprised markets and caused a notable shift in global risk sentiment.
- When long-term JGB yields rise unexpectedly, it often forces Japanese institutions to rebalance, leading to short-term volatility across global markets.
- However, this also increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan steps in with policy adjustments, which historically expands global liquidity.
- More liquidity = stronger support for crypto assets such as ETH.

3. Market sentiment & institutional positioning
- In periods of geopolitical and macro uncertainty, investors often rotate into alternative assets. ETH, as the leading smart-contract platform, consistently attracts attention.
- Any return of institutional flows — especially into staking, L2 ecosystems, or DeFi infrastructure — would heavily support an ETH breakout from this range.

4. Crypto cyclical behavior
- Crypto markets typically follow structured cycles:
Correction → Accumulation → Expansion.
- ETH is currently in the clean accumulation phase, and historically, these phases have preceded major bullish trends when combined with supportive macro conditions (like now).