Looking for shorts around the 1.2050 neighborhood...
Thanks to a healthy bout of buying above the H4 mid-level number 1.1950 yesterday, the single currency was able to shake hands with the widely watched 1.20 handle. As expected, price marginally whipsawed through this psychological boundary and came into contact with nearby H4 supply pegged at 1.2029-1.2007.
For those who read Tuesday’s report you may recall that we anticipated a bounce from here – well done to those who played this intraday move. Our reasoning behind only expecting a bounce lies within higher timeframe structure. On the weekly timeframe, the unit shows room to extend up to resistance at 1.2044. With such a major level planted above 1.20, the odds of price whipsawing through all of those stops above 1.20 is incredibly high, in our opinion.
Suggestions: Seeing as how H4 price is now seen chewing on 1.20 again, our expectation is for the pair to move higher today and touch gloves with the green area marked on the H4 chart at 1.2059/1.2038 (comprised of a H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.2059, a H4 mid-level resistance at 1.2050, a H4 Harmonic bearish Gartley pattern completion at 1.2038 and also the weekly resistance at 1.2044).
For aggressive traders, you could look to short 1.2038 with stops above 1.2059, while a more conservative route might be to wait for price to strike the 1.2050 region and place stops above the X point of the Gartley pattern at 1.2092.
Data points to consider: US FOMC Projections, statement and press conference at 7-7.30pm GMT+1.
For those who read Tuesday’s report you may recall that we anticipated a bounce from here – well done to those who played this intraday move. Our reasoning behind only expecting a bounce lies within higher timeframe structure. On the weekly timeframe, the unit shows room to extend up to resistance at 1.2044. With such a major level planted above 1.20, the odds of price whipsawing through all of those stops above 1.20 is incredibly high, in our opinion.
Suggestions: Seeing as how H4 price is now seen chewing on 1.20 again, our expectation is for the pair to move higher today and touch gloves with the green area marked on the H4 chart at 1.2059/1.2038 (comprised of a H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.2059, a H4 mid-level resistance at 1.2050, a H4 Harmonic bearish Gartley pattern completion at 1.2038 and also the weekly resistance at 1.2044).
For aggressive traders, you could look to short 1.2038 with stops above 1.2059, while a more conservative route might be to wait for price to strike the 1.2050 region and place stops above the X point of the Gartley pattern at 1.2092.
Data points to consider: US FOMC Projections, statement and press conference at 7-7.30pm GMT+1.
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